Atletico Goianiense have a chance to advance to their first Copa Sudamericana Final in club history as they travel to Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo on Thursday with a 3-1 aggregate lead over Sao Paulo.
A pair of second-half tallies broke a 1-1 deadlock between these sides in the opening leg of this semi-final last Thursday, the first defeat for Tricolor Paulista at this year's competition.
Match preview
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Sao Paulo picked one of the worst possible times to have an off game at the Sudamericana, as they allowed as many goals in that match as they had conceded in all six of their group stage fixtures combined.
Rogerio Ceni has seen his side struggle to get out of their current slump, winless in six consecutive matches in all competitions after a 1-1 draw away to Cuiaba in the Brasileiro Serie A on Sunday.
His side's current predicament is one that the club's record cap holder knows all too well, as Ceni and his team faced a 3-1 deficit in the 2003 Sudamericana semi-finals against River Plate, winning the second leg 2-0, but losing on penalties despite Ceni scoring in the shootout.
Over the past few weeks, the goalscoring in this squad has dried up, with Soberano notching a goal or fewer in their last five matches in all competitions.
They have also been unusually poor at home of late, losing three of their previous four matches played at Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo, failing to score on two occasions.
While they have never gone on to win a knockout stage tie at this competition when trailing by two goals, there are some encouraging things that they can draw on.
So far at the 2022 Copa Sudamericana, they have won each of their home fixtures, conceding just once in those five matches, while also winning their previous two domestic encounters on home soil versus Goianiense.
That includes a 3-0 triumph against them in 2020, and if they can repeat that feat on Thursday, it would be enough to send them into the final for the first time since 2012, when they won their only Sudamericana title to date.
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One of the most improbable stories in this competition has been Atletico Goianiense, who have repeatedly beaten the odds at the 2022 Sudamericana.
Goianiense have defeated some vastly experienced South American sides, topping a group that featured two former champions (Defensa y Justicia and LDU Quito).
Their story seems more improbable by the fact that Jorginho's side are in serious relegation danger in the Brasileiro Serie A, currently second from the bottom after 25 fixtures.
Since the beginning of the new domestic campaign, Dragao have had a hard time consistently competing at a high level, but that has not been the case at this tournament, where the club from Goias have won seven of their 11 matches played, posting two clean sheets away from home.
Having trailed a knockout stage tie previously by two goals and coming out on top could serve as a significant advantage for them heading into this deciding encounter as they know the feeling of playing desperate football with your back against the wall.
When you look at their form away from home in recent outings, it is probably good that they have a two-goal cushion coming into the second leg of this tie.
Dragao have lost five of their last seven road matches in all competitions, dropping four of those encounters by two or more goals.
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Team News
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Luciano picked up his fifth goal for Sao Paulo in their defeat to Goianiense last Thursday, with Rodrigo Nestor collecting his first assist of the competition, while Robert Arboleda, Reinaldo and Nestor have all tallied twice.
Their leading goalscorer domestically, Jonathan Calleri, has just a single goal to this point of the Sudamericana campaign, though he is tied with Luciano, Patrick and Igor Vinicius for the most assists on the team with two, while Luizao had their only tally over the weekend versus Cuiaba.
After receiving a pair of cautions in the opening half last week, midfielder Igor Gomes will be suspended for this upcoming encounter.
Luan and Nikao are nursing thigh issues, Andre Anderson could be available after previously suffering a muscle injury and Miranda is expected to sit this one out due to a sprained ankle.
Dragao midfielder Jorge de Moura Xavier, commonly known as Jorginho, scored his third of the tournament last week, putting him in a tie for the team lead alongside Luiz Fernando and Shaylon (three), with the latter putting home the winner, while the other tally came from Leo Pereira, his first of the competition.
Dudu and Arthur Henrique each collected their first assists of the Copa Sudamericana in the opening leg, while Jorginho and Diego Churin lead the team with three apiece.
Ramon Menezes, Ronaldo and Emerson Santos are all out for the rest of the season, with the Goianiense keeper suffering a shoulder injury, while the other two have Achilles problems.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Jandrei; Leo, Welington, Costa; Neves; Nestor, Alisson, Vinicius, Eder; Calleri, Luciano
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Renan; Dudu, Wanderson, Klaus, Henrique; Baralhas, Rickson; Freitas, Jorginho, Rato; Churin
We say: Sao Paulo 1-0 Atletico Goianiense (Atletico Goianiense advances 3-2 on aggregate).
Sao Paulo have some quality attackers, so reversing this 3-1 scoreline is not out of the realm of possibilities. However, Dragao have been underestimated throughout this competition, and we believe they will manage to frustrate the home side for large portions of this match, while still having enough to maintain their advantage.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
