Santos can increase their odds of staying in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A and add more misery to the last-place team when they welcome Chapecoense to Estadio Urbano Caldeira on Wednesday.
Peixe moved up to 12th over the weekend, despite a 0-0 draw with Atletico Goianiense, while Chape lost their first game in November, 2-0 to Juventude.
Match preview
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In an unpredictable 2021 campaign, this small club, which produced the great Pele, have fought hard to keep their place in the top flight beyond this season.
Fabio Carille saw his side put forth a couple of solid efforts last week, picking up four out of a possible six points.
Those points were massive as it puts them in the final position to compete at the Copa Sudamericana next year, but they are only three points above the relegation line, so the danger has not been cleared just yet.
The club have struggled to produce any generational talents like in past years, so they will have to make do with what they have and find a way to avoid dropping down into the second tier.
Since Carille took over, this side have approached their matches in a much different way than we are used to seeing, playing a low block system, with their midfielders having to come back more and more to help the back three.
Traditionally they line up in a 3-4-1-2 formation, which helps them to create a lot of different passing options, but their precision has let them down in recent games, clicking at a pass accuracy of less than 80% over their previous two matches, including only 56% on Saturday.
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Barely anything has gone right for Chape in their return to the top flight, a return that will be short-lived as they are already assured of relegation with 15 points after 32 matches played.
Felipe Paiva Endres saw his team do many good things at home to Juve on Sunday, but they were disappointing in front of goal yet again, and they started slowly conceding two first-half strikes for a second successive fixture.
You know a season is not going well when some of the main positives for your team are that you have only lost one game by multiple goals this month, but that is perhaps one of the few bright spots that Chape can take with them so far in November.
Not only have they struggled to score consistently, but they are having an even harder time preventing goals, allowing a league-high 54 this season, 12 more than the next closest team.
Technically speaking, they always seem to be just a step behind their opponents, and they struggle in their build-up play as they can barely string together more than a few passes, which explains why they do not give themselves a ton of good scoring opportunities.
They did have some excellent chances in their previous meeting with Santos, firing six shots on target, but failed to make the most of their dead-ball situations, misfiring on all of their set-pieces, one of the many things which have been difficult for this team to execute properly this year.
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Team News
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Joao Paulo made three saves for his second successive shutout in goal for Santos, as he has three in his previous three matches and is tied with Cleiton and Tiago Volpi in the Brasileiro Serie A this year with 11 clean sheets.
Carlos Sanchez had the only goal in their previous meeting with Chape, and he is currently tied for the team lead with Marinho, each of whom have tallied five times this year.
Sandry remains out with a ruptured knee ligament, Kevin Malthus has a cruciate ligament issue and John continues to be hampered by a meniscal injury.
Moises Ribeiro sat out of their game on Sunday and will need to be careful not to collect another caution in this one, which would suspend him from their next match, while goalkeepers Vagner and Tiepo are still out with a ruptured knee ligament and a knee injury respectively.
This past weekend, Alan Santos, Anselmo Ramon and Bruno Silva were put into the starting lineup, as Moises Ribeiro, Kaio Nunes and Henrique Almeida were on the bench.
Mike, who leads Chape in goals and assists this season with five and two respectively, has not scored since notching a brace on October 10, in a 5-2 defeat to Internacional, while Pedro Perotti has gone without a goal since September 7, currently sitting third on the team for goals along with Geuvanio and Kaio Nunes.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Boza, Felipe, Kaiky; Balieiro, Camacho, Jonatan, Madson; Pirani; Sanchez, Guilherme
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Matheus Ribeiro, Joilson, Ignacio, Busanello; Leite, Santos, Denner; Mike, Ramon, Silva
We say: Santos 1-0 Chapecoense
This will likely not be a very entertaining match as neither have a lot of strong technical skills, which explains why they are both near the bottom of the table, but Santos are better at maintaining a solid defensive shape, whereas Chape always give you a chance with an error or two in each game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
