Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for an Akhmat Grozny win it was 0-1 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.