Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 40.03%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.