Russian Premier League Gameweek 11
Oct 19, 2026 5.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 1
FT Stadion Rodina
  • Soltmurad Bakaev 14' goal
  • Soltmurad Bakaev 26' yellowcard
  • Artem Maksimenko 50' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Becão 67' yellowcard
  • Sergey Volkov 71' yellowcard
  • Igor Silva 75' yellowcard
  • Yordy Reyna 77' yellowcard
  • Ivan Timoshenko 90' goal
  • yellowcard Dmitriy Rybchinskiy 5'
  • yellowcard Evgeniy Bolotov 17'
  • goal Jordhy Thompson 25'
  • yellowcard Jordhy Thompson 26'
  • yellowcard Emil Tsenov 52'
  • yellowcard Damián Puebla 65'
  • yellowcard Aleksey Tataev 68'
  • goal Jordhy Thompson 73'
  • yellowcard Andrey Kasadzhikov 80'
  • yellowcard Egor Nazarenko 89'

Rodina Moskva vs Orenburg - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rodina Moskva

All competitions
Russian Premier League
Last game
Oct 11, 2026 2.30pm
CSKA 3 - 0 Rodina Moskva
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Artem Maksimenko

Orenburg

All competitions
Russian Premier League
Last game
Oct 10, 2026 11.00am
Orenburg 4 - 0 Makhachkala
Goals scored
13
Top scorer
Gedeon Guzina

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rodina Moskva win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Orenburg has a probability of 34.91% and a draw has a probability of 26.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rodina Moskva win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Orenburg win is 0-1 (8.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.3%).

Result

Rodina Moskva 38.96% ▲ (+1.43)
Draw 26.14% ▼ (-0.99)
Orenburg 34.91% ▼ (-0.41)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.87% ▲ (+0.45)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.31% ▼ (-0.71)
Under 1.5 25.69% ▲ (+0.71)
Over 2.5 49.99% ▼ (-0.99)
Under 2.5 50.01% ▲ (+0.99)
Over 3.5 29.13% ▲ (+0.50)
Under 3.5 70.87% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 4.5 16.09% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 4.5 83.91% ▼ (-0.35)

First Half Winner

Rodina Moskva 31.3% ▼ (-0.27)
Draw 42.5% ▼ (-2.50)
Orenburg 26.19% ▲ (+2.77)

Team To Score First

Rodina Moskva 51.72% ▼ (-0.76)
No Goal 7.05% ▼ (-0.38)
Orenburg 41.23% ▲ (+1.13)

Corners

Over 8 60.51% ▼ (-4.12)
Equal 8 10.74%
Under 8 28.75% ▲ (+4.13)
Over 9 49.34% ▼ (-3.72)
Equal 9 11.17% ▼ (-0.41)
Under 9 39.49% ▲ (+4.13)
Over 10.5 38.63% ▼ (-3.03)
Under 10.5 61.36% ▲ (+3.02)

Rodina Moskva Goals

Over 1.5 38.45% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 1.5 61.55% ▼ (-0.18)
Over 2.5 15.68% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 84.32% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 5.3% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 94.7% ▼ (-0.02)

Orenburg Goals

Over 0.5 68.59% ▼ (-0.93)
Under 0.5 31.41% ▲ (+0.93)
Over 1.5 35.53% ▼ (-0.66)
Under 1.5 64.47% ▲ (+0.66)
Over 2.5 14.01% ▼ (-0.73)
Under 2.5 85.99% ▲ (+0.72)
Over 3.5 4.57% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 95.43% ▲ (+0.09)

Score analysis

Rodina Moskva 38.95%
Draw 26.13%
Orenburg 34.91%
Rodina Moskva
1-0 @ 9.85% ▲ (+0.99)
2-1 @ 8.14% ▼ (-0.28)
2-0 @ 6.37% ▲ (+0.30)
3-1 @ 3.84% ▲ (+0.16)
3-0 @ 2.86% ▼ (-0.25)
3-2 @ 2.62% ▲ (+0.23)
Other @ 5.27% ▲ (+0.28)
Total : 38.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.3% ▼ (-0.26)
0-0 @ 7.05% ▼ (-0.38)
2-2 @ 5.69% ▲ (+0.09)
3-3 @ 1.06% ▼ (-0.18)
Other @ 0.03% ▼ (-0.26)
Total : 26.13%
Orenburg
0-1 @ 8.78% ▲ (+0.12)
1-2 @ 7.56% ▼ (-0.48)
0-2 @ 5.65% ▲ (+0.25)
1-3 @ 3.51% ▼ (-0.09)
2-3 @ 2.57% ▲ (+0.10)
0-3 @ 2.3% ▼ (-0.48)
Other @ 4.54% ▲ (+0.18)
Total : 34.91%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Feb 20, 2026 10.00am
Stadion Gazovik