Aiming to keep alive slim hopes of a top four finish, Roma welcome in-form Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening.
Following successive Serie A draws - plus Coppa Italia elimination - the hosts have again slipped out of the European places, while the visitors are on a run of four wins from six and trail their capital counterparts by just four points in the table.
Match preview
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Even if Jose Mourinho has managed to steer his side to a first unbeaten streak of four matches for the first time in over a year, a growing number of Roma fans remain far from content.
Previously held goalless by Serie A strugglers Genoa, the Giallorossi were then beaten 2-0 by Inter in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia, so travelled to Sassuolo last weekend in need of a morale-boosting win.
However, finding themselves 2-1 behind in the 94th minute, they were ultimately grateful to make their way back to the capital with even a point - the unlikely source of Bryan Cristante saving the day with a late headed goal against 10-man opposition.
The Eternal City club are, though, still struggling for form, as Mourinho grows increasingly frustrated in a familiar echo of his previous appointments in Manchester and North London.
Trailing city rivals Lazio by two points, and sitting six behind Juventus - who occupy the final Champions League spot - they have won just twice in Serie A since the turn of the year.
Nonetheless, Roma remain in the mix for a return to European football - sitting seventh in the standings ahead of the weekend - and are into the last 16 of the inaugural Europa Conference League too.
They also find themselves pitched against opponents they have traditionally dominated in the Italian top flight, having gone unbeaten in their last 24 home matches against Verona since the 1970s - racking up 19 wins in the process. Though also winners in five of their last seven at home or away, they did lose the clubs' most recent encounter 3-2 in September.
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Antonin Barak opened the scoring that day, as Hellas bagged a rare victory over their Roman rivals, and the Czech playmaker has been back among the goals in the club's recent run, which has consolidated a place in the top half of the Serie A standings.
After his double in the 4-2 win at Sassuolo last month, Barak was on target again last Sunday - netting the second in a 4-0 victory over Udinese at Stadio Bentegodi.
Having scored freely under Igor Tudor, the Gialloblu are the only team throughout the top five European leagues to have three players on at least nine league goals this term, with Barak (nine) joining top scorer Giovanni Simeone (12) and Gianluca Caprari (also nine).
In all likelihood, they will now go on to have two players reaching double figures in a Serie A season for the first time in their history, given that they are already the division's fourth best attacking side in terms of goals scored so far - ahead of Atalanta, Fiorentina, Napoli and - of course - Roma.
Not only that, but as they prepare to journey south this weekend, the Scaligeri have also won three of their last five away games - as many as in their previous 21 top-flight road trips. However, they often get caught on the break, and Hellas have now conceded in each of their last 16 away matches - their worst such streak in over 20 years.
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Team News
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Having sprung a surprise by naming rookie striker Felix Afena-Gyan in his starting XI last Sunday, it remains to be seen whether Jose Mourinho keeps faith with the young Ghanaian this weekend.
More likely is that Nicolo Zaniolo - who missed out against Sassuolo due to suspension - will return in attack if he can overcome a muscular problem, while Roger Ibanez, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Eldor Shomurodov and Stephan El Shaarawy are all unavailable due to injury.
As ever, leading scorer Tammy Abraham leads the line for the hosts, but Roma will have to make a change at the back, as Gianluca Mancini must serve a suspension for accumulated bookings. Therefore, ex-Verona defender Marash Kumbulla could come into a side struck by four unnamed COVID-19 cases just a day before kickoff.
After appearing from the bench last week, Hellas captain Davide Faraoni is expected to start at the Olimpico, which would see Fabio Depaoli left out despite scoring in the win over Udinese.
In support of top scorer Giovanni Simeone up front, Gianluca Caprari - who made four league appearances for Roma between 2011 and 2013 - has scored in each of his last three league games and should feature alongside Antonin Barak in Igor Tudor's favoured 3-4-2-1 formation.
As experienced midfielder Miguel Veloso remains doubtful for the game, Adrien Tameze and Ivan Ilic could man the visitors' engine room once again.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Karsdorp, Smalling, Kumbulla, Vina; Cristante, Oliveira, Veretout; Pellegrini; Zaniolo, Abraham
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Casale, Gunter, Ceccherini; Faraoni, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
We say: Roma 2-1 Hellas Verona
Having conceded twice in three of their last four matches, Roma can certainly be vulnerable at the back, and may also have to improvise selection at the heart of their defence.
Nonetheless, they possess sufficient firepower to match a vibrant Verona team blow for blow, and could edge an entertaining encounter in the capital.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 62.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 17.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
