Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-2 (7.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.