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Real Madrid logo
La Liga | Gameweek 29
Jun 18, 2020 at 9pm UK
Santiago Bernabeu
Valencia logo

Real Madrid
3 - 0
Valencia

Benzema (61', 86'), Asensio (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Gaya (24'), Sanmartin (84')

Preview: Real Madrid vs. Valencia - predictions, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's La Liga clash between Real Madrid and Valencia, including team news and predicted lineups.

Real Madrid will be aiming to increase the pressure on La Liga table-toppers Barcelona when they play host to Valencia at the Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano on Thursday evening.

Valencia, meanwhile, are looking for their first win since the restart following a dramatic 1-1 draw with Levante last time out.


Match preview

Real Madrid coach Zinedine Zidane before the match on February 26, 2020© Reuters

Real returned to winning ways as the Spanish top flight resumed after a three-month suspension last weekend, as first-half strikes from Toni Kroos, Sergio Ramos and Marcelo comfortably saw off Eibar to leave Los Blancos two points adrift of leaders Barcelona.

The Catalan giants have the chance to extend that gap to five points on Tuesday when they take on relegation candidates Leganes, but Real certainly will not be giving up hope of La Liga glory just yet.

The two powerhouses have been swapping between first and second for a large portion of the campaign, but defeats to Real Betis and Levante just before the shutdown means that Zinedine Zidane's side are slightly off the pace after 28 matches.

Nevertheless, Los Blancos have amassed an impressive 14-game unbeaten run at home, although they will not be in familiar surroundings for the remainder of the season as the Bernabeu undergoes renovation works.

Zidane will be encouraged by fixtures against relegation-threatened Mallorca and Espanyol in the coming weeks, but the former Galactico knows that anything but a win in these pivotal games could spell the difference between a La Liga title or a runners-up spot come the end of the season.

Valencia boss Albert Celades pictured on November 5, 2019© Reuters

As far as Valencia are concerned, Albert Celades will have been disappointed by the manner of his side's draw with Levante - with Rodrigo's 89th minute opener cancelled out by a Gonzalo Melero penalty eight minutes into stoppage time.

Valencia were unable to capitalise on the teams above them dropping points as the race for a European spot gathers pace, and Los Che currently sit in seventh on 43 points - three off the Europa League places as things stand.

Celades's side are still very much in the mix for a place in Europe for next season, and the Champions League is still a realistic target for Valencia as they lie four points behind fourth-placed Real Sociedad.

The Bats have only picked up one win in their last six, however, and Valencia were sent crashing out of this season's Champions League by Atalanta 8-4 on aggregate just before the lockdown period.

Furthermore, Valencia are the only side in the top half of the La Liga table with a negative goal difference, and Celedes's side are therefore highly unlikely to break into the top six even if Atletico Madrid and Getafe both lose their respective matches this week.

Los Che held Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw earlier in the campaign, with Los Blancos only salvaging a point courtesy of Karim Benzema's 95th-minute equaliser after Carlos Soler had opened the scoring for Valencia.

Real Madrid La Liga form: WDLWLW
Real Madrid form (all competitions): DLLWLW

Valencia La Liga form: LDLWDD
Valencia form (all competitions): LLWDLD


Team News

Gareth Bale in action for Real Madrid on December 18, 2019© Reuters

Luka Jovic and Nacho Fernandez both remain on the treatment table for Los Blancos, while Lucas Vazquez is also facing a spell on the sidelines with a calf injury.

Mariano Diaz is struggling to recover from a toe problem, but Gareth Bale should be involved in midweek after it was reported that the Welshman missed training on Monday.

Dani Carvajal was substituted at half-time against Eibar but is not thought to be carrying anything serious, while Federico Valverde could earn a spot in the middle of the park ahead of Luka Modric.

Valencia will be unable to call upon Ezequiel Garay or Cristiano Piccini as the defenders continue their recoveries from knee injuries, and former Arsenal man Gabriel Paulista is also unlikely to come back in time.

Geoffrey Kondogbia is back in the fold having served a suspension and is in line for a start, while Daniel Wass and Kevin Gameiro could feature from the opening whistle having come off the bench against Levante.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Carvajal, Ramos, Varane, Mendy; Casemiro, Kroos, Valverde; Rodrygo, Benzema, Hazard

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Wass, Diakhaby, Guillamon, Gaya; Torres, Parejo, Kondogbia, Soler; Rodrigo, Gameiro


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Real Madrid 3-1 Valencia

Real did not appear to be heavily affected by the absence of the Bernabeu and the roaring crowd against Eibar, and the superior attacking quality of Zidane's men should see them record a comfortable victory over a Valencia side struggling for wins at the moment.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 67.48%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.84%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid32256170224881
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13Las PalmasLas Palmas32107153039-937
14AlavesAlaves3298152838-1035
15Rayo Vallecano32713122739-1234
16Celta Vigo32710153747-1031
17Mallorca32613132638-1231
18CadizCadiz32413152245-2325
19Granada3239203361-2818
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