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Barcelona logo
La Liga | Gameweek 10
Oct 24, 2021 at 3.15pm UK
Camp Nou
Real Madrid logo

Barcelona
1 - 2
Real Madrid

Aguero (90+7')
Pique (58')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Alaba (32'), Vazquez (90+3')
Mendy (80')

Preview: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Barcelona and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In a game that could very well make or break his time in the Camp Nou dugout, Ronald Koeman's Barcelona play host to Real Madrid in El Clasico on Sunday.

La Blaugrana find themselves seventh in the table after eight matches, while Carlo Ancelotti's men have slipped off top spot after taking just one point from their last two games.


Match preview

Barcelona coach Ronald Koeman on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Having seemingly hung onto his job by the thinnest of threads for several weeks now, Koeman was widely expected to depart following the defeat to Atletico Madrid just before the international break, but the Dutchman has retained the faith of Joan Laporta for El Clasico.

A 3-1 win over Valencia - during which Ansu Fati, Memphis Depay and Philippe Coutinho found the back of the net - set the Blaugrana up nicely for their midweek Champions League tie with Dynamo Kiev, where Gerard Pique's finish would propel his side to their first points of the European campaign.

By sinking the Ukrainian champions on their own turf, Barcelona posted back-to-back wins for the first time since April, and the success over Valencia has elevated Koeman's side to seventh in the rankings - one point behind Rayo Vallecano and two adrift of Osasuna - both of whom have played a game more.

Koeman's side have hardly covered themselves in glory since the first season of the post-Lionel Messi era kicked off, but one defeat from their opening eight La Liga games is hardly an abysmal record, and they have also taken 13 points from a possible 15 at home in the league this term.

With only two points separating Barcelona from Los Blancos - as well as Sevilla and Atletico Madrid in third and fourth respectively - Koeman's side need no added incentive to prevail in the Clasico, lest they risk the pressure growing even heavier on the shoulders of the under-fire coach.

Real Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti on October 19, 2021© Reuters

Despite seeing their near-perfect start to the La Liga season come to an end before the international break, Real Madrid's attacking guile came to the fore in their Champions League battle with Shakhtar Donetsk, which saw Los Blancos run out 5-0 winners on the day.

Finally coming into his own at the Bernabeu, Vinicius Junior continued his remarkable start to the campaign with two goals and an assist on the day, while ageless talisman Karim Benzema netted his 11th strike from as many matches in all competitions to put the cherry on the icing on the cake.

However, defeat to a resurgent Espanyol side after a goalless stalemate with Villarreal has seen Ancelotti's side cede their place at the top of the rankings to Real Sociedad - who have played a game more - and the second-placed Blancos are now three points behind the table-toppers ahead of El Clasico.

Sociedad must prepare for battle against champions Atletico Madrid a few hours after El Clasico, though, so top scorers Real Madrid - whose tally of 22 goals is by far the most in the division so far - travel to Catalonia in the knowledge that a priceless three points could very well see them return to the top of the pile.

Prior to defeat at Espanyol, Real Madrid had posted an 18-game unbeaten run away from home in La Liga and have also strung together a three-game winning run in El Clasico, but precedent will count for nothing in front of a fired-up Camp Nou faithful here.

Barcelona La Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W

Barcelona form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

Real Madrid La Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Real Madrid form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Jordi Alba sits injured on February 15, 2020© Reuters

Barcelona continue to cope without long-term victims Martin Braithwaite and Ousmane Dembele - whose wait to return from knee surgery continues - while Pedri and Ronald Araujo also remain absent.

Jordi Alba has also emerged as a doubt after picking up a foot injury in the Champions League, so 18-year-old Alex Balde may be given a baptism of fire at left-back in the Clasico, although Alba is expected to be fit.

Sergi Roberto could also displace Oscar Mingueza in the Catalans' defence, while Luuk de Jong is also likely to drop out as Ansu Fati - fresh from signing a new six-year deal - returns on the left.

Real Madrid duo Dani Ceballos and Gareth Bale will play no part in El Clasico as they recuperate from hamstring and ankle injuries respectively, but Ancelotti is hopeful that both Eden Hazard and Dani Carvajal will be able to play some part this weekend.

There are more question marks over Isco and Luka Jovic, although neither man was likely to start here, while Benzema should retain his place up top as he remains absent for the ongoing trial surrounding alleged blackmail of Mathieu Valbuena, but he reportedly missed full training on Friday.

However, Benzema should certainly form part of an unchanged front three with Vinicius and Rodrygo if fit, while Lucas Vazquez could drop out for the more defensive-minded Nacho at right-back.

Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Roberto, Pique, Garcia, Balde; Gavi, Busquets, De Jong; Dest, Depay, Fati

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Nacho, Militao, Alaba, Mendy; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius Jr


SM words green background

We say: Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid

With Benzema on song and Vinicius Junior finally living up to the hype, Real's status as top scorers in the division is hardly a surprise, and their three-game winning run in El Clasico will certainly inspire confidence within the ranks.

Barcelona have posted a set of strong results at home and are more than capable of giving Los Blancos a good run for their money, but Koeman's side have looked convincing in very few matches this term, and we expect them to fall short in front of their own fans.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Barcelona
20.1%
Draw
11.8%
Real Madrid
68.1%
364
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid31246167204778
2Barcelona31217362342870
3GironaGirona31205663392465
4Atletico MadridAtletico31194859362361
5Athletic Bilbao31169651292257
6Real Sociedad311311745331250
7Valencia31138103432247
8Real BetisBetis31111283837145
9Villarreal31109124954-539
10Getafe31912103743-639
11Osasuna31116143644-839
12Las PalmasLas Palmas31107142935-637
13Sevilla31810133944-534
14AlavesAlaves3188152638-1232
15Mallorca31613122536-1131
16Rayo Vallecano31613122538-1331
17Celta Vigo31610153346-1328
18CadizCadiz31413142141-2025
19Granada3138203260-2817
20Almeria31111193062-3214


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