Champions League final day permutations: What does each team need to do on Wednesday night?

Only two teams have secured their spot in the last-16 stage of the Champions League ahead of the final matchday on Wednesday night, with Arsenal and Bayern Munich certain of a spot in the next round.

Thirteen more teams - Atalanta BC, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Inter Milan, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Sporting Lisbon and Tottenham Hotspur - are confirmed in at least the knockout round playoffs.

Meanwhile, four teams have been eliminated from the tournament ahead of Wednesday's fixtures, with Eintracht Frankfurt, Kairat Almaty, Slavia Prague and Villarreal out.

The knockout phase playoffs will take place on February 17,18 and February 24, 25, before the round of 16 on March 10, 11 and March 17, 18.

Here, Sports Mole runs through what each team needs to do in order to potentially finish in the top eight or make the knockout round playoffs, and it is set to be a fascinating final matchday.

Third-placed Real Madrid, in theory, only need to avoid defeat to Benfica to qualify for the round of 16, as their goal difference is a lot stronger than some of the teams on 13 points. Benfica, meanwhile, are 29th on six points, and they need to win to have any chance of finishing in the playoffs.

Fourth-placed Liverpool need a win over Qarabag to be sure of a spot in the round of 16, while the Azerbaijani outfit would make the playoffs if they avoid defeat to the Reds.

Tottenham in fifth need to beat already-eliminated Frankfurt to finish in the top eight, but a draw would also be enough if at least five from Atalanta, Atletico, Man City, Sporting Lisbon, Barcelona, Chelsea, Newcastle, PSG and Liverpool fail to win or lose.

Sixth-placed PSG and seventh-placed Newcastle are locking horns on Wednesday night; a win for PSG would see them make the top eight due to their strong goal difference, while a victory would also be enough for Newcastle for the same reason; a draw in this fixture may also be enough for both to qualify for the knockout round of the tournament.

Chelsea in eighth need to win to stand a chance of qualifying directly, while Napoli have an excellent chance of making the playoffs if they were to triumph.

18 games kicking off simultaneously on Wednesday ?#UCL pic.twitter.com/NwkUz8XDgQ

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 26, 2026

Champions League permutations: Arsenal, Bayern have qualified for the round of 16

Ninth-placed Barcelona need to beat Copenhagen to stand a chance of finishing in the top eight, while the visitors could qualify for the playoffs if they win at Camp Nou, but that scenario relies on at least two of the other nine teams on eight, nine or 10 points failing to secure their desired results.

Sporting Lisbon are 10th and need to win against Athletic Bilbao to stand a chance of finishing in the top eight, while the Basque outfit need to triumph to stand a chance of making the playoffs.

Man City in 11th need to win against Galatasaray and hope that other results go their way to make the top eight, while the Turkish outfit will qualify for the playoffs if they avoid defeat.

Atletico are 12th and need to beat Bodo/Glimt to stand a chance of finishing in the top eight, while the visitors are 28th and have to win to stand a chance of making the playoffs.

Atalanta BC are also on 13 points, and the Italian outfit, who sit 13th, must overcome Union SG to potentially make the top eight, while the Belgian club are 31st and must win to stand a chance of making the playoffs, but a number of other results would also need to go their way.

Inter Milan in 14th could finish in the top eight if they beat Borussia Dortmund, while the German outfit, who are 16th and definitely in the playoffs, have a very slim chance of making the top eight if they win on Wednesday, but it is very unlikely.

Not a single point separates 6th-13th in the Champions League...which makes for a truly box office MD8 ?‍???

Grab your popcorn, this is going to be a good one ??

In theory, the likes of Napoli, Benfica and Marseille could all be eliminated if results go against them, while… pic.twitter.com/9DoqLSWIFk

— OneFootball (@OneFootball) January 22, 2026

Champions League permutations: The battle for the top eight will be fierce on Wednesday night

Juventus are 15th and could still finish in the top eight with a win, while their opponents Monaco sit 21st and will qualify for the playoffs with a win in this match.

Marseille in 19th would qualify for the playoffs with a win over Club Brugge, who must overcome the French team to stand a chance of claiming a playoff spot, but they would need a number of other results to go in their favour on Wednesday night.

Bayer Leverkusen in 20th need to beat already-eliminated Villarreal to be sure of a spot in the playoffs, while a draw may be enough if other results go in their favour.

PSV Eindhoven are 22nd and would almost certainly qualify for the playoffs with a win over Bayern, who are already through to the next round alongside Arsenal.

Olympiacos are 23rd and facing 32nd-placed Ajax; both need to win to stand a chance of making the playoffs, while 30th-placed Pafos need a win against already-eliminated Slavia Prague in order to stand a chance of finishing in the playoff positions in the table.