Reading welcome Derby County to the Madejski Stadium for a Championship relegation battle with a twist on Monday afternoon.
The hosts have slipped down the table after a poor run of form and then a spell with no games, whilst the visitors attempt to continue their recovery from two points deductions.
Match preview
© Reuters
Assuming the match is able to go ahead, Reading will finally play a game of football for the first time in 23 days on Monday, after a series of postponed games.
The Royals' form has come in waves so far this campaign - four losses from their first five games was followed by five wins from six in September and October, before four more consecutive losses.
Their most recent five games have been a mixed bag but featured just the one win - an eventful 3-2 away at Swansea City - and saw them lose their last game to West Bromwich Albion.
Veljko Paunovic will hope that his side can start another positive run of form now as they hover dangerously just one place above the relegation zone in 21st.
They have not been playing like relegation candidates for the most part, but must get some more points on the board and will now come up against a side on a strong run and with a point to prove.
© Reuters
Derby may be bottom of the table but if it were not for their 21-point deduction, they would be sat in a comfortable 13th spot in midtable.
Wayne Rooney's men have also won their last three matches as they look to make up for further lost ground, winning two games in the last week.
First, a Colin Kazim-Richards goal was enough to see off West Brom at home on Monday, and then three days later, the 35-year-old snatched the points for his side again - this time in the 85th minute - shortly after Tom Ince had cancelled out Luke Plange's opener.
The wait goes on for new owners at the Pride Park Stadium, but if Rooney continues with the job he has been doing and the Rams can keep up their current momentum, they may just pull off an incredible escape.
A fourth back-to-back win this week would be a good starting point for 2022.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Reading should see Ovie Ejaria and Liam Moore return to the squad after recovering from COVID-19.
Ejaria should be straight back into the starting XI but the latter may struggle to regain his place in defence with Tom Holmes and Scott Dann having forged an impressive partnership in his absence.
John Swift, Danny Drinkwater and Andy Yiadom have all also returned from injury so it could be quite a different lineup to the one that faced West Brom three weeks ago.
Derby goalscorers Kazim-Richards and Plange should continue as the front two after their strong recent performances.
The shape behind them could change, however, with Rooney potentially reverting back to a 3-5-2 system on Monday afternoon.
Reading possible starting lineup:
Southwood; Yiadom, Holmes, Dann, Baba; Laurent; Halilovic, Drinkwater, Swift, Ejaria; Carroll
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Jagielka, Davies, Forsyth; Byrne, Thompson, Bird, Knight, Ebosele; Kazim-Richards, Plange
We say: Reading 1-1 Derby County
Reading are probably the stronger side on paper but will have to overcome some ring rustiness after such an extended break between games. Derby are also playing well and look determined to pull off the impossible this season, so on this occasion we are backing a tight game ending in a score draw.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
