RB Leipzig will be hoping to bounce back from their opening day Bundesliga defeat when they host high-flying Stuttgart on Friday night.
The visitors, meanwhile, are looking to secure their third successive win of the new campaign across all competitions, and add to the 11 goals they have already scored.
Match preview
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Jesse Marsch's first league game in charge at Leipzig ended in disappointing fashion as his side were beaten 1-0 away at coronavirus-hit Mainz 05 on the opening weekend of the new season.
The game was initially in doubt as the hosts had 11 players and three members of staff in isolation, however a 12th-minute tap in from Moussa Niakhate was enough to condemn the visitors to defeat. Interestingly, that goal for Niakhate was his sixth Bundesliga strike and his fourth on home soil against Leipzig.
Despite having more than double the number of shots on goal and 72% possession, die Roten Bullen could not find a way to break down a resilient Mainz backline.
Arriving from RB Salzburg over the summer, Marsch is tasked with breaking Bayern Munich's streak of nine successive Bundesliga titles, with the current holders now managed by his predecessor Julian Nagelsmann.
Leipzig head into their first home match of the new campaign having beaten Stuttgart in five of their six competitive meetings against them, with the other fixture ending as a draw.
Die Roten Bullen – who won both encounters against Stuttgart last season without conceding a goal – had the third-best Bundesliga home record last term, winning 11 and drawing four of their 17 matches at the Red Bull Arena, so they should be confident in claiming their first three points of the new season on Friday.
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In stark contrast, Stuttgart have had a brilliant start to the new campaign, as they followed up a 6-0 thrashing against BFC Dynamo in the first round of the DFB-Pokal, with a comfortable 5-1 victory at home against newly-promoted Furth on Saturday.
A brace from Marc-Oliver Kempf as well as strikes from Wataru Endo, Philipp Klement and Hamadi Al Ghaddioui helped the hosts cruise to their first three points of the season and their first opening-day win in the Bundesliga since 2011-12.
After guiding his side to promotion from the second tier in 2019-20 and then following that up with an impressive ninth-place finish in the top flight last season, Stuttgart head coach Pellegrino Matarazzo is hoping for a third successful campaign at the helm.
The Swabians head into their first away game against Leipzig, having never beaten them and scoring only once in a 3-1 home defeat in February 2019.
However, Matarazzo's men have shown great form in front of goal so far this term, finding the net 11 times in their two fixtures, and a victory on Friday would see Stuttgart record two straight wins to open a Bundesliga season for the first time in 25 years.
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Team News
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Leipzig trio Benjamin Henrichs, Marcelo Saracchi and Ademola Lookman are all expected to miss out with knee injuries, while Marcel Halstenberg continues to recover from an ankle problem.
Striker Alexander Sorloth missed out last weekend due to illness but the Norwegian is set to be in contention to play on Friday, though new recruit Andre Silva will likely lead the line from the start.
Attacking midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, who has been linked with a summer departure, did not take part in any pre-season friendlies but he did come on as a substitute last weekend and he may feature from the bench once again against Stuttgart.
Experienced Swedish international Emil Forsberg is expected to play ahead of him in the number 10 role, with support provided in midfield by Christopher Nkunku and Amadou Haidara.
As for Stuttgart, Matarazzo will have to deal with several first-team absentees, including Sasa Kalajdzic, Nikolas Nartey and Tanguy Coulibaly, who have all tested positive for coronavirus.
Naouirou Ahamada (calf), Momo Cisse (ankle), Lilian Egloff (foot), Chris Fuhrich (collarbone fracture), Orel Managala (hip), and Silas Katompa Mvumpa (knee) are also ruled out with injuries.
Teenage Dutch striker Mohamed Sankoh is the latest name added to the treatment table as he was stretchered off in the second half against Furth with a knee ligament injury.
Matarazzo is therefore unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to the starting lineup he named last weekend.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Mukiele, Simakan, Orban, Angelino; Adams, Kampl; Haidara, Forsberg, Nkunku; Silva
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Muller; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Massimo, Endo, Karazor, Sosa; Forster, Klimowicz; Al Ghaddioui
We say: RB Leipzig 2-1 Stuttgart
Despite missing several first-team players, Stuttgart have had no problems finding the net and winning matches, however Friday's encounter is set to pose more of a challenge than their two previous games.
Leipzig will be keen to bounce back from their opening-day defeat and we can see them securing all three points on home soil.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 56.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Stuttgart had a probability of 21.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Stuttgart win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
