Ferencvaros will make the trip to Qarabag FK on Wednesday evening, looking to claim an advantage in the first leg of their third qualifying round contest in the Champions League.
The visitors have beaten Tobol and Slovan Bratislava to advance to this round of the competition, while Qarabag have navigated their way past Lech Poznan and FC Zurich.
Match preview
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Qarabag finished top of the Azerbaijan Premier League for the ninth time in 2021-22, which saw them book their spot in the first qualifying round for the 2022-23 Champions League.
Gurban Gurbanov's side were impressive in the opening round of this season's competition, recording a 5-2 aggregate victory over Lech Poznan, while they were 5-4 winners over Zurich in the last round.
Qarabag played in the Europa Conference League last season, progressing to the knockout round by finishing second in Group H, but they lost 6-1 on aggregate to Marseille in their next fixture.
The Azerbaijani outfit last played in the group stage of the Champions League in 2017-18, finishing fourth in Group C, which included Roma, Atletico Madrid and Chelsea.
Qarabag have won 18, drawn 15 and lost 10 of their previous 43 Champions League matches, and the fact that they have not been in action since the second leg of their clash with Zurich should stand them in good stead.
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Ferencvaros, meanwhile, are 33-time Hungarian champions, finishing 11 points clear at the top of the division last season, which saw them book their spot in the first qualifying round for this season's European Cup.
The Green Eagles beat Tobol 5-1 on aggregate in the opening round, but they had to come from behind against Slovan Bratislava last time out, losing the first leg 2-1 at home before recording a 4-1 victory on their travels to advance to this stage of the competition.
Stanislav Cherchesov's side played in the group stage of the 2020-21 Champions League, finishing bottom of a section which saw them take on Juventus, Barcelona and Dynamo Kiev.
The Hungarian giants were eliminated in the playoff round for last season's Champions League, but they did play in the Europa League last term, finishing fourth in their section.
Ferencvaros will be in action ahead of this match, beginning their 2022-23 domestic campaign against Puskas on Sunday night, and they will be determined to come through that fixture without any issues.
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Team News
Qarabag have no fresh injury concerns from their second leg with Zurich, and having not yet started their league season, it would not be a surprise to see the same XI take to the field.
Head coach Qurbanov is set to line his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Kady, who was on the scoresheet last time out, playing as the number 10 for the Azerbaijani outfit.
Ibrahima Wadji enjoyed a strong 2021-22 campaign for Qarabag, finding the back of the net on 16 occasions in 28 appearances, and he is set to lead the line for the hosts here.
As for Ferencvaros, the manner of the team's performance in the second leg against Slovan Bratislava could lead to head coach Cherchesov selecting the same XI.
A 4-2-3-1 formation should see Adama Traore and Tokmac Nguen feature in the wide positions, with Franck Boli playing through the middle for the visitors.
There are options for change, with Fortune Bassey among those pushing for starts, but providing that there are no late fitness setbacks, it could be the same side that took to the field for the first whistle last time out.
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; Vesovic, Medvedev, Medina, Cafarguilyev; Jankovic, Almeyda; Seydayev, Kady, Zoubir; Wadji
Ferencvaros possible starting lineup:
Dibusz; Botka, Mmaee, Knoester, Civic; Laidouni, Esiti; Niguen, Zachariassen, Traore; Boli
We say: Qarabag FK 1-1 Ferencvaros
Both managers would view a draw as a respectable result in the first leg, and we are struggling to separate the two sides here. Ferencvaros were excellent in the second leg against Zurich last time out and will fancy their chances of avoiding a first-leg defeat on Wednesday night.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.62%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
