AZ Alkmaar play host to PSV Eindhoven on Sunday afternoon with the opportunity to move level on points with their second-placed opponents.
Already sitting eight points adrift of Eredivisie leaders Ajax, the visitors may prioritise avoiding defeat against their nearest rivals for Champions League qualification.
Match preview
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Although PSV have recorded three draws from their most recent five league matches, Roger Schmidt will feel that his side are not deserving of any criticism which comes their way.
PSV only failed to see off Ajax through a last-gasp equaliser from their rivals, while his team came from behind to earn a share of the spoils against Feyenoord last weekend.
Despite a total of 21 points from 10 matches not being enough to keep pace with Ajax, Schmidt will be relieved that their fate remains in their own hands ahead of the trip to the AFAS Stadium.
The biggest concern for Schmidt will be a lack of clean sheets with five matches having now passed since their shutout versus FC Twente on February 6.
From AZ's perspective, they will only be further encouraged by PSV's defensive record with 17 goals being scored in their last six outings.
Although Pascal Jansen will want to ensure that AZ finish no lower than third position, Sunday's fixture represents his side's best opportunity to keep PSV under pressure for the second Champions League spot.
In comparison to the rest of the top four, AZ possess the worst home return with six points fewer being recorded than their next opponents.
However, forward Myron Boadu has rediscovered his form in front of goal in recent weeks with six strikes coming from just four outings.
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Team News
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Having been able to rest players during the final quarter of the win over Twente, Jansen make opt against making alterations to his starting lineup.
Pantelis Chatzidiakos, Fredrik Midtsjo and Jeremy Helmer are all expected to miss out through injury.
Schmidt must decide whether to hand a recall to Noni Madueke, who has made an impression from the substitutes' bench in the last two matches.
Defender Nick Viergever could drop out of the PSV XI, allowing for Jordan Teze to return to the side.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Svensson, Letschert, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Koopmeiners, Reijnders; Stengs, Gudmundsson, Karlsson; Boadu
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Mvogo; Dumfries, Teze, Boscagli, Max; Vertessen, Rosario, Sangare, Gotze; Malen, Zahavi
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 PSV Eindhoven
Having allowed AZ back into the race for second position, Schmidt knows that his players are under pressure to raise their performance level in this game. However, with scoring goals not an issue for the home team, we are backing the hosts to battle their way to arguably their most important win of the season.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
