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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Oct 29, 2021 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
Lille
PSG
2 - 1
Lille
Marquinhos (74'), di Maria (88')
Neymar (86')
FT(HT: 0-1)
David (31')
Mandava (5'), Yilmaz (36'), Sanches (57'), Celik (63'), Grbic (85')

Preview: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lille - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The league leaders take on the reigning champions as Paris Saint-Germain and Lille kick off the weekend's Ligue 1 action when they meet at the Parc des Princes on Friday evening.

The hosts have a seven-point lead at the top, whilst the visitors continue to underperform and are sat in 10th, 13 points behind their upcoming opponents.


Match preview

Paris St Germain's Lionel Messi celebrates after Olympique de Marseille's Luan Peres scores an own goal which is later disallowed on October 24, 2021© Reuters

PSG have their perfect start to the season to thank for their current cushion at the Ligue 1 summit, after having lost one and drawn one of their most recent three games.

Their 100% record came crashing down with a shock 2-0 defeat away at Rennes, but Mauricio Pochettino's side bounced back after the international break with back-to-back wins over Angers in the league and RB Leipzig in the Champions League, though they had to come from behind in both games.

That momentum was stalled at the weekend, however, as they played out a frustrating goalless draw with Marseille in a game dominated by crowd trouble and VAR decisions.

Play had to be stopped in both halves as bottles were thrown at Neymar when the Brazilian forward attempted to take corner kicks, and a pitch invader prevented a PSG attack and grabbed Lionel Messi.

Each side had a goal ruled out by VAR - a Luan Peres own goal for PSG and an Arkadiusz Milik strike for Marseille - and, as the referee was consulting with his VAR team on the decision to send off Les Parisiens' right-back Achraf Hakimi, he had a laser shone into his face.

Lille coach Jocelyn Gourvennec gives instructions to his players on September 14, 2021© Reuters

Pochettino will have been frustrated by the events and the result, but his level of frustration is likely nothing compared to that of the Lille fanbase.

Having already lost more matches in the current campaign than they did in the entirety of their 2020-21 championship-winning season, Jocelyn Gourvennec's first couple of months in charge of Lille have not exactly gone to plan.

Gourvennec was considered an underwhelming appointment by some of the Lille fanbase - the 49-year-old having been out of work since parting ways with Guingamp in May 2019 as they suffered relegation - before the season even began.

Whilst there was immediate silverware at his new club, thanks to a win over PSG in the Trophee des Champions, the start of the season has been stuttering at best, and they have taken just one point from their last two league games, after a 1-0 loss to Clermont and a 1-1 draw at home to struggling Brest last weekend.

Les Dogues will have to find some bite in their play quickly or this title defence could go down as one of the worst in the league's history, but a repeat of their triumph in the Trophee des Champions seems unlikely this weekend.

Paris Saint-Germain Ligue 1 form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D

Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Lille Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Lille form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D



Team News

Marco Verratti in action for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in October 2021© Reuters

After suffering a knock in the last game, Marco Verratti is expected to be out for around four weeks, which will allow former Liverpool midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum back into the starting XI.

The Italian joins Sergio Rico, Leandro Paredes and Sergio Ramos on the sidelines, but was due to be suspended anyway, as is Hakimi after his red card against Marseille.

Thilo Kehrer should start at right-back in a four-man defence alongside Marquinhos, Presnel Kimpembe and Nuno Mendes, while Kylian Mbappe has an ear infection and an evaluation will be made in 48 hours.

Benjamin Andre is suspended for Lille for an accumulation of yellow cards, with Renato Sanches his likely replacement.

Sven Botman is out with a groin injury until early November and it is also expected to be too early for Leo Jardim's return from a neck injury.

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Kehrer, Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Mendes; Wijnaldum, Gueye; Messi, Neymar, Di Maria; Mbappe.

Lille possible starting lineup:
Grbic; Celik, Fonte, Djalo, Mandava; Weah, Xeka, Sanches, Bamba; David, Yilmaz


SM words green background

We say: Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Lille

Whilst PSG's Ligue 1 form of late has taken a dip, they should still easily have enough to dispatch the faltering champions. The gulf between two sides who fought tooth and nail for the title last year is astounding and should see the hosts win by a couple of goals.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 58.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lille had a probability of 18.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Lille win it was 0-1 (5.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: PSG vs Lille

Paris Saint-Germain
80.5%
Draw
11.3%
Lille
8.2%
353
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Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring against Barcelona in the Champions League on March 10, 2021
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG26178162233959
2Brest26138536201647
3MonacoMonaco26137647361146
4Lille261110537231443
5Nice2612772720743
6Lens2612683527842
7Marseille26109740281239
8Rennes2610974031939
9Reims26115103435-138
10Lyon26104123040-1034
11Toulouse2678112936-729
12StrasbourgStrasbourg2678112839-1129
13Le HavreLe Havre2669112633-727
14Montpellier HSCMontpellier2669113140-926
15Lorient2668123549-1426
16NantesNantes2674152441-1725
17Metz2665152339-1623
18Clermont2648141943-2420

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