Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Watford had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.13%) and 1-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.