Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Everton win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.