Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 15

Dec 5, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
3 - 4
Arsenal

Osho (25'), Adebayo (49'), Barkley (57')
Brown (33'), Barkley (44')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Martinelli (20'), Jesus (45'), Havertz (60'), Rice (90+7')
Jesus (45+1'), Arteta (90+8')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Brentford 3-1 Luton
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arsenal

All competitions

Premier League

Last Game: Arsenal 2-1 Wolves
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 59.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 18.79%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Arsenal
18.79% ( 0.27)	21.42% ( 0.21)	59.78% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 54.82% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.41% (

-0.52)

42.59% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35% (

-0.52)

65% (

0.52)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.64% (

-0.02)

36.36% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.85% (

-0.01)

73.15% (

0.01)

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.14% (

-0.31)

13.86% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.75% (

-0.62)

41.25% (

0.62)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 18.79%

Arsenal 59.78%

Draw 21.42%

Luton Town	Draw	Arsenal
1-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 18.79%	1-1 @ 10.07% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.42%	0-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 9.96% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.84% ( 0) 1-3 @ 6.56% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 6.48% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 3.2% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 1.28% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.04% Total : 59.78%