Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 38

Jul 26, 2020 at 4pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
3 - 2
Watford

Aubameyang (5' pen., 33'), Tierney (24')
Xhaka (45'), Holding (72'), Martinez (74')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Deeney (43' pen.)
Pereyra (35'), Hughes (45+4')

Reaction

Watford captain Troy Deeney reacts as his side are relegated on July 26, 2020

Troy Deeney warns he may "smash a few things" after Watford relegation

He delayed surgery on a knee injury until after the final game of the campaign.

Jul 27, 11:12

David Luiz in action for Arsenal on July 26, 2020

Arsenal's David Luiz breaks unwanted penalty record

Arsenal defender David Luiz breaks an unwanted Premier League record for the most penalties conceded by a player in a single season.

Jul 26, 23:00

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Watford
47.62%	24.99%	27.39%

Both teams to score 53.97%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.1%

48.9%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.01%

70.99%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.43%

20.57%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.91%

53.09%

Watford Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.94%

32.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.47%

68.53%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 47.62%

Watford 27.39%

Draw 24.98%

Arsenal	Draw	Watford
1-0 @ 10.42% 2-1 @ 9.38% 2-0 @ 8.25% 3-1 @ 4.95% 3-0 @ 4.35% 3-2 @ 2.81% 4-1 @ 1.96% 4-0 @ 1.72% 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.68% Total : 47.62%	1-1 @ 11.86% 0-0 @ 6.59% 2-2 @ 5.34% 3-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.98%	0-1 @ 7.5% 1-2 @ 6.75% 0-2 @ 4.27% 1-3 @ 2.56% 2-3 @ 2.02% 0-3 @ 1.62% Other @ 2.68% Total : 27.39%