Premier League

Premier League | Gameweek 9

Oct 22, 2021 at 8pm UK

Emirates Stadium

Arsenal
3 - 1
Aston Villa

Partey (23'), Aubameyang (45+6'), Smith Rowe (56')
Sambi Lokonga (45+1'), Aubameyang (66')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ramsey (82')
Watkins (2'), Mings (27'), McGinn (32'), Targett (60'), Luiz (84')

Reaction

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith on October 16, 2021

Dean Smith disputes VAR call against Aston Villa in Arsenal defeat

Dean Smith suggests that a VAR call which led to a penalty should not have gone against Aston Villa during their 3-1 defeat at Arsenal.

Oct 22, 21:44

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 55.99%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 20.22%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.

Result
Arsenal	Draw	Aston Villa
55.99%	23.79%	20.22%

Both teams to score 49.64%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.33%

50.67%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.42%

72.58%

Arsenal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.06%

17.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.24%

48.76%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.48%

39.51%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.8%

76.2%

Score Analysis

Arsenal 55.98%

Aston Villa 20.22%

Draw 23.78%

Arsenal	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 12.17% 2-0 @ 10.46% 2-1 @ 9.72% 3-0 @ 5.99% 3-1 @ 5.57% 3-2 @ 2.58% 4-0 @ 2.58% 4-1 @ 2.39% 4-2 @ 1.11% Other @ 3.41% Total : 55.98%	1-1 @ 11.3% 0-0 @ 7.09% 2-2 @ 4.51% Other @ 0.89% Total : 23.78%	0-1 @ 6.58% 1-2 @ 5.25% 0-2 @ 3.06% 1-3 @ 1.63% 2-3 @ 1.4% 0-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.37% Total : 20.22%