EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Stamford Bridge

Chelsea
1 - 1
Aston Villa

Werner (54')
Sarr (31'), James (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Archer (64')
Young (86')

Chelsea win 4-3 on penalties

Reaction

Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel on September 14, 2021

Job well done for Thomas Tuchel as Chelsea edge out Aston Villa on penalties

Goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga repeated his spot-kick heroics from the UEFA Super Cup final shoot-out.

Sep 22, 22:27

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 54.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 21.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Chelsea	Draw	Aston Villa
54.63%	23.49%	21.87%

Both teams to score 52.92%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.5%

47.5%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.29%

69.71%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.73%

17.27%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.4%

47.59%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.96%

36.04%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.18%

72.82%

Score Analysis

Chelsea 54.62%

Aston Villa 21.87%

Draw 23.49%

Chelsea	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 9.8% 2-0 @ 9.6% 3-1 @ 5.74% 3-0 @ 5.62% 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-1 @ 2.52% 4-0 @ 2.47% 4-2 @ 1.29% Other @ 3.76% Total : 54.62%	1-1 @ 11.15% 0-0 @ 6.22% 2-2 @ 5% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.49%	0-1 @ 6.35% 1-2 @ 5.69% 0-2 @ 3.24% 1-3 @ 1.94% 2-3 @ 1.7% 0-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.85% Total : 21.87%