Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 75.18%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 10.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.79%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Newcastle United Under-21s
10.79% ( 0.27)	14.03% ( 0.21)	75.18% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 61.93% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.93% (

-0.26)

24.07% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

56.31% (

-0.35)

43.69% (

0.35)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.47% (

0.24)

34.53% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.75% (

0.25)

71.25% (

-0.25)

Newcastle United Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.6% (

-0.13)

5.4% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

78.84% (

-0.39)

21.16% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 10.79%

Newcastle United Under-21s 75.18%

Draw 14.03%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Newcastle United Under-21s
2-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 2% Total : 10.79%	1-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.34% Total : 14.03%	1-2 @ 8.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 8.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 7.73% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 6% ( -0.06) 0-4 @ 5.64% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 3.5% ( -0.06) 0-5 @ 3.29% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 3.19% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.86% ( -0.02) 1-6 @ 1.7% ( -0.05) 0-6 @ 1.6% ( -0.05) 3-4 @ 1.13% ( 0) 2-6 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.22% Total : 75.18%