Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Under-21s win with a probability of 68.29%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 15.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.78%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 1-2 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.