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[monks data]
Portsmouth
League One | Gameweek 22
Dec 11, 2021 at 3pm UK
Fratton Park
Morecambe

Portsmouth
2 - 0
Morecambe

Harness (11'), Ogilvie (77')
Hackett-Fairchild (60')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Gibson (38'), McLaughlin (85'), Delaney (90+5')

Preview: Portsmouth vs. Morecambe - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Portsmouth and Morecambe, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Portsmouth will look to continue their revival under Danny Cowley when they welcome Morecambe to Fratton Park on Saturday afternoon.

It will be the pair's first meeting in the third tier, having met for four consecutive seasons as League Two clubs.


Match preview

Portsmouth manager Danny Cowley pictured on May 9, 2021© Reuters

What had threatened to be another season of mediocrity in League One for Portsmouth, has rather valiantly been turned around by Pompey boss Cowley.

Just one win from five league games in October saw Portsmouth slip as far down the table as 17th, with a return to the fourth tier looking more likely than promotion.

A run of five straight league victories was halted in midweek with a goalless draw at home to fellow-playoff hopefuls Sheffield Wednesday, with Pompey's current unbeaten streak sitting at an impressive eight matches.

Such form has propelled the club up the table, with Portsmouth now sitting comfortably in the top half while also remaining within touching distance of the playoff spots.

Three points against Morecambe this weekend would see Portsmouth move into the top six, should other results go their way.

However, their visitors will be desperate for points themselves as Morecambe look to extend their maiden campaign in League One after earning promotion via the playoffs last season.

Hovering just above the relegation zone as things stand, Morecambe have surprised many with their performances so far and the Shrimps look set to enter the new year with survival still a possibility.

Despite some optimism in the Morecambe camp, if they are to secure their League One status come the end of the season, the Lancashire club will have to arrest a run of just one victory in their last 10 league outings.

A 2-1 win over Fleetwood Town last month remains their only victory since late September, yet the Shrimps may find optimism in their surprisingly positive record against Portsmouth.

Unbeaten the last time that they travelled to Fratton Park, Morecambe have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Portsmouth, even winning two of those matches in the process.

During the eight meetings that the pair had while they shared a division, only twice were Portsmouth able to take three points, making Saturday's clash a potentially trickier test than Pompey may have imagined.

Portsmouth League One form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Portsmouth form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Morecambe League One form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Morecambe form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

If Portsmouth are to continue their upwards trajectory and sneak back into the playoff spots, the form of Marcus Harness will be crucial to their efforts.

The winger has double the amount of goals as Portsmouth's second top scorer and Harness will be looking to add to his return of eight when he faces an out-of-sorts Morecambe defence.

Harness' goals have helped ease the absence of striker John Marquis, who has missed the last five League One fixtures and is unlikely to feature against Morecambe.

In his place will be Ronan Curtis, who has featured 19 times this season and returned a mere three goals for his efforts.

For Morecambe, they have had no such problems finding a striker capable of scoring goals, with Cole Stockton currently leading the way as the division's top scorer.

It is at the opposite end where Morecambe have struggled the most this season, having kept just three clean sheets from their 20 League One appearances.

Kyle Letheren will be the man tasked with trying to keep a shutout against a Pompey attack hungry for goals.

Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Ogilvie, Raggett, Freeman; Hackett-Fairchild, Williams, Azeez, Romeo; Harness, Curtis, Hirst

Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Letheren; McLaughlin, O'Connor, Delaney, Leigh; Wildig, Jones, McCalmont; Ayunga, Stockton, Gnahoua


SM words green background

We say: Portsmouth 2-1 Morecambe

Portsmouth should be looking at this clash against one of the division's lesser sides with optimism as they look to continue their revival.

Morecambe have been a thorn in Pompey's side during seasons gone by, so it could be closer than some expect.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 55.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 20.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Portsmouth vs Morecambe

Portsmouth
92.9%
Draw
7.1%
Morecambe
0.0%
14
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Sunderland manager Lee Johnson after the match on September 21, 2021
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Tuesday's League One football predictions including Sunderland vs. Morecambe
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