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Porto
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 28
Apr 22, 2021 at 9pm UK
Estádio do Dragão
Vitoria de Guimaraes

Porto
1 - 0
Guimaraes

Marega (49')
Mensah (55'), Marega (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Porto vs. Vitoria de Guimaraes - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Porto will be aiming to maintain their winning run in the Primeira Liga when they host Vitoria de Guimaraes at Estadio do Dragao on Thursday night.

The Dragons have won six in a row to keep the pressure on leaders Sporting Lisbon, while Guimaraes ended a losing streak last time out to move into sixth.


Match preview

Porto coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on April 7, 2021© Reuters

Since losing 3-2 to Pacos de Ferreira on October 30, Porto's league record has been pretty extraordinary, winning 16 and drawing five in an unbeaten run spanning 21 games.

Unfortunately for Sergio Conceicao's side, though, Sporting have been in even better form over that period, going 27 matches since last tasting defeat in the league.

Sporting did recently draw a couple of games in a row, however, whereas Porto have not dropped any points in their last six matches.

That leaves the gap at the top at six points in Sporting's favour, and there is nothing to separate the sides in terms of head-to-head record - both league games finishing level.

All Porto can do is keep winning, then, and hope for further slip-ups from the pacesetters in their quest for back-to-back league crowns.

The 1-0 win at Nacional last time out was not the most convincing, though Mehdi Taremi's 20th-minute goal proved enough in the end.

A general shot of Marcus Edwards celebrating with teammates for Vitoria de Guimaraes in June 2020© Reuters

Guimaraes make the trip to Estadio do Dragao on the back of a 1-0 win of their own thanks to a Rochinha strike at home to Santa Clara.

That brought an end to a five-game losing streak for the Vimaranenses - a terrible run that has ended any realistic possibility of a top-four finish.

It also cost Joao Henriques his job, yet Guimaraes still occupy sixth place, which would be enough for a Europa Conference League second-qualifying round spot.

Guimaraes have Santa Clara in hot pursuit just three points behind, and they still have to face Moreirense, who are a further point back.

The visitors earned a point away at Benfica in February, and were only beaten by a late goal in the reverse fixture with Porto, so this will by no means be a straightforward task for the reigning champions.

Porto Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Porto form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Porto's Jesus Corona in action in January 2021© Reuters

Following their recent Champions League quarter-final loss to Chelsea, Porto can now focus entirely on their Primeira Liga title pursuit.

Conceicao has near enough a full group of players to choose from, too, with backup goalkeeper Mouhamed Mbaye the hosts' only known absentee.

Nanu is pushing Manafa for a starting spot at right-back, but that aside it is unlikely that Porto will make many - if any - changes to their side.

As for Guimaraes, they have been without the injured Ricardo Quaresma of late and that is expected to still be the case here.

The visitors brought in Bino as Henriques's replacement and he has opted for a 3-4-3 formation so far, which will also likely be the case here.

In fact, Guimaraes may go with the same XI after beating Santa Clara on Saturday, meaning Rochinha and Marcus Edwards flanking Oscar Estupinan up top.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Nanu, Mbemba, Pepe, Sanusi; Uribe, Grujic, Oliveira; Corona, Taremi, Diaz

Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Fernandes, Amaro, Mumin; Sacko, Pepelu, Andre, Mensah; Edwards, Estupinan, Rochinha


SM words green background

We say: Porto 2-0 Vitoria de Guimaraes

Porto have won six games in a row in the league and, put simply, they need to maintain that perfect streak until the end of the season if they are to catch leaders Sporting.

Guimaraes have their eyes on a European spot, but they have won just two of their last 12 and we cannot see them claiming a share of the spoils here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.53%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 14.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.3%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.99%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Porto in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Porto vs Guimaraes

Porto
89.6%
Draw
8.3%
Vitoria de Guimaraes
2.1%
48
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Porto coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on April 7, 2021
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon25212275255065
2Benfica26204260213964
3Porto26184450183258
4Braga26165555342153
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes26155641271450
6MoreirenseMoreirense2612682827142
7AroucaArouca26104124337634
8FamalicaoFamalicao2561092430-628
9Gil Vicente2677123539-428
10BoavistaBoavista2677123351-1828
11Casa Pia2676132339-1627
12SC FarenseFarense2676133438-427
13Estrela Amadora2668122639-1326
14Estoril PraiaEstoril2674154249-725
15Rio AveRio Ave2641392635-925
16PortimonensePortimonense2665152453-2923
17Vizela2649132652-2621
18ChavesChaves2647152556-3119


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