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Porto
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 23
Mar 14, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estádio do Dragão
Pacos de Ferreira logo

Porto
2 - 0
Pacos de Ferreira

Pepe (77'), Oliveira (78')
Fernandes Conceicao (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)

de Brito Gonzaga (62'), Costa (70')

Preview: Porto vs. Pacos de Ferreira - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Pacos de Ferreira, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Porto will host Pacos de Ferreira on Sunday evening with the visitors hoping to claim successive Primeira Liga victories against the hosts for the first time.

Meanwhile, spirits are high in the Dragons camp as they come into this fixture after beating Juventus in the knockout stages of the Champions League in midweek.


Match preview

Porto celebrate beating Juventus in the Champions League on March 9, 2021© Reuters

Sergio Conceicao's side caused the biggest upset in the Champions League earlier this week as a brace from Sergio Oliveira helped ten-man Porto progress on away goals after their round of 16 tie with Juventus ended 4-4 on aggregate.

After Oliveira's fizzing free-kick squeezed past Wojciech Szczesny with just five minutes of extra time left to play, the hosts went straight up the other end to restore their lead through Adrien Rabiot, but the Portuguese giants held firm in the closing stages to seal a memorable win in Turin.

Before discovering their quarter-final opponents next Friday, Porto turn their attention back to the Primeira Liga this weekend where they face a Pacos de Ferreira outfit, who have already beaten them this season.

After winning just two of their last six top-flight matches, the Dragons currently sit 10 points adrift of league leaders Sporting Lisbon and have 12 games remaining to close the gap if they are to retain the title.

Victory on Sunday could move Porto up to second place in the table and should give them a confidence boost as they look to finish their domestic campaign strongly.

Pacos de Ferreira head coach Pepa pictured in June 2020© Reuters

Pacos de Ferreira got back to winning ways last Friday as they secured a 2-1 victory at home to Nacional, thanks to a first-half brace from Luther Singh.

The Beavers remain in fifth place, seven points behind this weekend's opponents Porto, who they beat 3-2 in the reverse fixture back in October.

Only the Primeira Liga's top two, Sporting and Braga, have won more home matches than Pacos so far this term, but Pepa's side head to the Estadio do Dragao after dropping points in seven of their 11 league games on the road this campaign.

The Beavers may never have a better opportunity to finish ahead of both Porto and Benfica, who have both surprisingly dropped points in recent weeks, and a victory on Sunday would boost their chances of finishing as high as third for the first time since the 2012-13 season.

Porto Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Porto form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L

Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W


Team News

Porto head coach Sergio Conceicao pictured on February 17, 2021© Reuters

After a draining yet rewarding midweek fixture, Conceicao may decide to make one or two changes to his starting lineup.

Pepe and Oliveira were standout performers on Wednesday but are likely to be tired after 120 minutes of football, so Diogo Leite and Marko Grujic could have an opportunity to start.

Striker Mehdi Taremi was sent off against Juve but will only serve his suspension in the Champions League, which means that he is likely to feature up front alongside Moussa Marega once again.

Pacos de Ferreira full-back Jorge Silva is available after eight months out with a ligament injury, but he is not expected to feature in the starting lineup just yet.

Singh is set keep his place in the first XI after netting a decisive brace last time out and could line up alongside Douglas Tanque and Helder Ferreira in a three-man attack.

Porto possible starting lineup:
Marchesin; Manafa, Leite, Mbemba, Sanusi; Corona, Uribe, Grujic, Diaz; Taremi, Marega

Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Maracas, Rebocho; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Ferreira, Tanque, Singh


SM words green background

We say: Porto 2-1 Pacos de Ferreira

With European qualification in their sights, Pacos de Ferreira are hoping to cause another upset against the reigning Primeira Liga champions, while Porto's ambitions of retaining their title are beginning to slip away, and they will need to claim three points on Sunday in order to have any chance of closing the gap to Sporting.

Both sides could cause each other problems defensively, but we can see the hosts securing a slender victory at the Estadio do Dragao.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 15.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.7%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Porto vs Pacos de Ferreira

Porto
82.5%
Draw
15.0%
Pacos de Ferreira
2.5%
40
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Porto celebrate beating Juventus in the Champions League on March 9, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon30262287276080
2Benfica30234368244473
3Porto30195655243162
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5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes30176745321357
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9Casa Pia3088143043-1332
10SC FarenseFarense3087153944-531
11Rio AveRio Ave3051693238-631
12Gil Vicente3087153748-1131
13BoavistaBoavista3079143556-2130
14Estoril PraiaEstoril3086164552-730
15Estrela Amadora30611133246-1429
16PortimonensePortimonense3077163464-3028
17ChavesChaves3058173062-3223
18Vizela3049172962-3321


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