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Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
Mar 13, 2022 at 3am UK
Jeld-Wen Field
Austin FC

Portland
1 - 0
Austin

Tuiloma (62')
Chara (53'), Paredes (57'), Blanco (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Dominguez (49'), Driussi (50'), Kolmanic (50'), Pereira (60'), Valencia (90+5')

Preview: Portland Timbers vs. Austin FC - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Portland Timbers and Austin FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

An all Western Conference affair takes place at Providence Park on Sunday, when Portland Timbers welcome high-flying Austin FC to Oregon, with the hosts looking for their first win of the campaign.

The visitors currently sit top of the division on goal difference, while the Timbers are just outside the playoff positions in eighth after back-to-back draws to start this season.


Match preview

Portland Timbers celebrate after a goal in the first half against the Los Angeles FC at Banc of California Stadium on March 6, 2022© Reuters

After showing good spirit to come from behind to equalise on two occasions in gameweek one, Portland were then left disappointed last time out, when they conceded a 93rd-minute leveller from Los Angeles FC's Mamadou Fall, who made the Timbers settle for a 1-1 draw in the end.

Giovanni Savarese's side had to endure long periods of that match without possession of the ball, particularly when Claudio Bravo saw red in the 62nd minute and the visitors were reduced to 10 players.

Having played a substantial portion of that game with a player less than LAFC, who should have scored more than once with the chances that they created, a point in those circumstances could be viewed as a positive one for Portland.

This weekend's hosts will want to make the game easier for themselves than they did in their last match on home soil, by not allowing Austin to take the lead, which will be a difficult task given the league leaders' good start to the season.

Austin FC defender Julio Cascante (18) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against Inter Miami in the first half of a MLS game at Q2 Stadium on March 6, 2022© Reuters

Josh Wolff's side have netted an impressive 10 goals in their opening two matches, with the only disappointment in that time being that they allowed Inter Miami to score a consolation goal last time out.

Sebastian Driussi and Ethan Finlay secured themselves a brace each, while Julio Cascante also joined in on the scoring front to secure that 5-1 win last weekend.

Sunday's outing will be Austin's first match on the road this season, and after their away form really let them down last year, this will be a strong indication to see if Austin will maintain their challenge at the top.

The likelihood of Wolff's side being able to net another five goals is slim, but after such a strong start to the season, specifically in an attacking sense, the visitors are expected to cause Portland a lot of problems.

Austin will almost certainly dominate possession against the Timbers, therefore from the hosts' point of view, their success will be based on how well they can counter attack to catch Austin out.

Portland Timbers Major League Soccer form:
  • D
  • D

Austin FC Major League Soccer form:
  • W
  • W



Team News

Portland Timbers midfielder Diego Chara (21) and defender Bill Tuiloma (25) plead their case to referee Ismail Elfath after a red card was issued in the second half against the Los Angeles FC at Banc of California Stadium on March 6, 2022© Reuters

Savarese continues to be challenged with a long injury list, with Dario Zuparic, Eryk Williamson, Felipe Mora, Larrys Mabiala and Tega Ikoba all ruled out of action.

Left-back Bravo will serve his one-match suspension this weekend after being sent off for two bookable offences last time out - Justin Rasmussen could come into the starting 11 in Bravo's absence.

That is expected to be the only change to Portland's side, with Yimmi Chara and Jaroslaw Niezgoda continuing to lead the line for the Timbers and Chara looking to add to his two goals already this season.

Austin remained unchanged from gameweek one to gameweek two, and Wolff is likely to name the same 11 as they have seemingly found a formula which has been successful so far.

Maximiliano Urruti will lead the line for the visitors, still looking for his first goal of the campaign, while Diego Fagundez is a likely source to provide the chances for Urruti, having registered three assists from his right-wing position.

Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Rasmussen, Tuiloma, McGraw, Van Rankin; Asprilla, Paredes, Diego Chara, Moreno; Niezgoda, Yimmi Chara

Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Kolmanic, Keller, Cascante, Lima; Pereira, Ring; Dominguez, Druissi, Fagundez; Urruti


SM words green background

We say: Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FC

Portland have shown that they possess a strong attacking threat having netted three times so far, suggesting that they could cause Austin some problems defensively.

However, Austin will be determined to start their away record this season in the best way with three points, as they will be aware how important their form on their travels will be after last season.






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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 62.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 16.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Portland vs Austin

Portland Timbers
10.0%
Draw
30.0%
Austin FC
60.0%
10
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8New York City FCNY City932499011
9Charlotte FCCharlotte FC9324911-211
10CF MontrealMontreal83231216-411
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14Nashville SCNashville8143916-77
15New England RevolutionNew England8116514-94

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1Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy95312115618
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8St Louis City92611514112
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10Sporting Kansas CityKansas92521716111
11Portland TimbersPortland92431818010
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14San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes91081324-113


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