Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.94%) and 2-0 (6.12%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.