Panama will be looking to solidify their qualification position for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar when they host El Salvador in their CONCACAF qualifier in Panama City on Tuesday evening.
The hosts currently find themselves occupying the playoff spot heading into the midweek clash, whilst the visitors are second-from-bottom after recording just a single win after the opening seven qualifying fixtures.
Match preview
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Three wins and 11 points from the first seven qualifiers in the Octagonal group of the CONCACAF region mean Panama have made a good start in their quest to qualify for just their second-ever World Cup appearance, following on from their historic achievements in reaching the 2018 tournament in Russia.
Thomas Christiansen's side earned a lot of plaudits for their memorable qualification and performances at the 2018 tournament itself, but the Spanish boss will be looking for the minnows to make it a regular occurrence by featuring in Qatar next year as well.
Occupying fourth spot at the halfway stage in the 2022 qualification campaign has increased their hopes of ensuring Russia was not a one-off moment, particularly considering the 3-2 win over Honduras on Friday evening opened up a five-point gap over the on-looking Costa Rica, Jamaica and El Salvador.
With USA, Mexico and Canada unlikely to drop out of the top three automatic qualification spots, the Canal Men will be aware that their playoff spot is the only likely target for the nations they sit above.
As a result, their eyes will be fixed on any potential slip up from Panama in Panama City on Tuesday, and with El Salvador cutting the gap to two points were they to win, Panama will need to avoid any overconfidence.
However, they will be grateful that their situation is not desperate unlike the teams situated in the bottom half, although the feeling heading into Tuesday's clash could have been completely different were it not for a miraculous turnaround last time out.
The 3-2 successful scoreline in Honduras fails to tell the story at all, as three late goals in the space of nine minutes from Cecilio Waterman, Cesar Yanis and Eric Davis turned the game on its head in the blink of an eye after falling 2-0 down inside the opening hour of the game.
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Meanwhile, El Salvador's hopes of reaching their first World Cup in 40 years are hanging by a thread heading into Tuesday, with their chances potentially resting on achieving a positive result in Panama City.
Defeat to their hosts would see the Salvadorians fall eight points behind them in the playoff qualification spot with just the six fixtures remaining, but coming away with an unlikely victory would close the gap to two points and reignite their hopes.
However, achieving success will be difficult for Hugo Perez's men considering they have picked up just the one win and scored just three goals in the process during the Octagonal group so far.
Although, that first victory, as well as their first goal scored in the CONCACAF qualification campaign, did arrive in this reverse fixture back in October when El Salvador played host to the Canal Men in front of their own supporters, with Enrico Hernandez being the hero on that day.
Most recently, El Salvador looked set to come into this encounter on the back of three-straight defeats in qualifiers, until captain Alex Roldan equalised in the 90th minute to rescue a point against Jamaica on Friday evening.
The ecstasy of picking up a late point will be required in this crucial clash in Panama on Tuesday evening, if the visitors are to stand any chance of reaching just their third-ever World Cup.
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Team News
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As a result of their instant impact off the bench in Honduras, Waterman and Yanis may have earned themselves a spot in the starting lineup on Tuesday, with Rolando Blackburn and Freddy Gondola the players likely to drop out were the former two to come in.
Omar Browne could also come in on the right of the front three with Alfredo Stephens due to serve a one-match suspension after picking up his second yellow card, in what could be an entirely new forward line from the one that started out on Friday.
Whilst Stephens misses out through suspension, captain Anibal Godoy returns from his one-match ban served on Friday, with Cristian Martinez likely to make way.
As for the visitors, Marvin Monterroza could come into the starting 11 for Hernandez after a positive contribution from the bench against Jamaica.
The experienced Darwin Ceren may be another that is restored from the beginning by Perez in his 4-1-3-2 setup.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mejia; Murillo, Escobar, Andrade, Davis; Godoy, Cooper, Carrasquilla; Browne, Waterman, Yanis
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Dominguez, Gomez, Larin; C Martinez; Monterroza, Ceren, Roldan; Rivas, Henriquez
We say: Panama 2-0 El Salvador
We believe Panama should record a fairly comfortable victory over their struggling visitors on Tuesday evening, thus opening the gap between themselves and the chasing pack in the process.
Three points is vital for either side but El Salvador are likely to come away with nothing against a Panama side that is strong on home soil.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Panama would win this match.
