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Palmeiras
Brasileiro | Gameweek 10
Jul 7, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio Palestra Italia
Gremio

Palmeiras
2 - 0
Gremio

Veiga (1'), Menino (17')
Menino (9'), Danilo (41')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Nunes (32'), Henrique (34'), Vanderson (38')

Preview: Palmeiras vs. Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Brasileiro clash between Palmeiras and Gremio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Following a fast start to their Campeonato Brasileiro campaign, Palmeiras host rock-bottom Gremio at Allianz Parque on Wednesday.

The hosts sit third after three successive victories, while their sluggish visitors have toiled to a tally of just two league points so far.


Match preview

Palmeiras team huddle before the match on June 28, 2021© Reuters

Continuing a positive opening to their Serie A campaign on Sunday, high-flying Palmeiras won 1-0 at Sport Recife to move onto five wins from their last six league games - having scored a healthy tally of 12 goals in the process.

Gustavo Scarpa notched the vital goal for O Verdao, as he found the net in the 38th minute to ultimately decide a finely-balanced game at Estadio Ilha do Retiro.

Abel Ferreira's side, therefore, remain in third place and sit three points clear of Atletico Mineiro in fourth - just two points behind league leaders Bragantino, who are the only team yet to lose in this season's Campeonato.

Their momentum has been building since earlier this year, as in January they triumphed in the delayed Copa Libertadores final against Santos at the Maracana, before lifting their fourth Copa do Brasil trophy just two months later - defeating Gremio 3–0 on aggregate.

That was the last time these two clubs clashed, so Ferreira and company will be looking to assert their superiority, having finished a place behind this Wednesday's visitors in last season's standings.

Gremio's Matheus Henrique celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Since they last met Palmeiras - in a 2-0 defeat at Allianz Parque which confirmed they would fall at the national cup's final hurdle - Gremio have endured mixed fortunes, as they followed last term's sixth-placed slot in the final table with a winless start to the current campaign.

Most recently, head coach Tiago Nunes has seen his team lose a third successive away match last Thursday - when they were beaten 2-0 by promoted Juventude despite dominating possession - before falling to defeat at home to Atletico Goianiense at the weekend.

Once more, the Porto Alegre-based side bossed the ball - with nearly two-thirds of possession - but were stung by Lucao's second-half strike at Arena do Gremio.

A paltry total of just four league goals tells the tale of the opening phase of their season, as a defence marshalled by experienced centre-back pairing Pedro Geromel - a veteran of several Bundesliga campaigns - and Argentina's Walter Kannemann have fared relatively well so far.

Now facing a tough pair of domestic fixtures - first versus Palmeiras and then against Internacional - they will return to continental action later this month, so Nunes will want to build momentum before their Copa Sudamericana tie with Ecuador's LDU Quito.

Palmeiras Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Gremio Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L



Team News

Palmeiras's Luiz Adriano celebrates scoring in November 2020© Reuters

Palmeiras are set to start with Deyverson as a lone striker again, as former Shakthar Donetsk forward Luiz Adriano has been suffering with swelling to the knee and missed out on even a place on the bench last time out.

The one-time Milan man aside, the hosts' only other injury concern is over Gabriel Veron, who has a thigh problem which may keep him out for another week.

Meanwhile, Chilean defender Benjamin Kuscevic returns from suspension, with veteran Felipe Melo most likely to make way if Abel Ferreira decides to put him straight back into the side.

Gremio are, though, managing a handful of absentees, as Maicon, Elias Manoel and Leo Gomes are all expected to be unavailable, though Leo Chu and Alisson returned to the bench on Sunday.

Juventus winger Douglas Costa has seen his career go into a steep decline of late, but the on-loan Brazil international is set to retain his spot on the right wing in the visitors' customary 4-2-3-1 formation.

Gremio have failed to score for over 300 minutes now, but will keep faith in central striker Diego Souza.

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Jailson; Rocha, Luan, Kuscevic, Luis; Ze Rafael, Danilo; Scarpa, Veiga, Lopes; Deyverson

Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Rafinha, Geromel, Kannemann, Goiano; Santos, Bobsin; Costa, Henrique, Ferreira; Souza


SM words green background

We say: Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio

Coming into this encounter in wildly contrasting form, one of the division's form sides meets one of four clubs yet to taste victory.

Allied to home advantage, their superior start to the campaign and a significant threat in front of goal makes Palmeiras strong favourites to claim maximum points, while desperate Gremio will have to wait a while longer to claim their first league win.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 45.9%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Palmeiras vs Gremio

Palmeiras
90.5%
Draw
4.8%
Gremio
4.8%
21
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Sao Paulo team huddle before the match on June 13, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1BragantinoBragantino32105327
2FlamengoFlamengo32104227
3Botafogo32018446
4Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR32015236
5Gremio32014226
6InternacionalInternacional32013216
7Atletico Mineiro31204135
8FortalezaFortaleza21103214
9Fluminense31115504
10Bahia31115504
11PalmeirasPalmeiras31111104
12JuventudeJuventude311146-24
13Cruzeiro311146-24
14Sao Paulo31025413
15Vasco da GamaVasco310245-13
16CriciumaCriciuma20202202
17Vitoria201123-11
18Corinthians301203-31
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO300316-50
20Cuiaba200205-50


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