Playoff chasing Oxford United will continue their push for promotion when they host relegation-threatened AFC Wimbledon at the Kassam Stadium on Wednesday evening.
Oxford occupies the final League One playoff position heading into the midweek action, while Wimbledon are hovering dangerously above the relegation zone.
Match preview
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With only six wins from their 20 matches in League One so far, Wimbledon's form has been nothing short of stuttering, with the London club yet to register back-to-back wins this term.
A five-point buffer currently separates Wimbledon and the drop zone, but manager Mark Robinson will take solace in the fact that his side boast two games in hand over most of the teams around them.
Furthermore, Wimbledon have enjoyed some of their best form on the road this season, picking up 14 points from away matches, compared to 11 at home.
That will be worrying news for Oxford boss Karl Robinson, who is hoping to see his side maintain their place in the playoffs ahead of the new year.
Looking to record a top-six finish for the third consecutive season, Oxford's dreams of promotion to the second tier will likely depend on their playoff performance.
Relegated from the old Division One in 1998-99, the U's have since dropped out of the Football League, and they will be hoping to return to the Championship come the end of May.
Three points against struggling Wimbledon would be a welcome boost to their season ambitions, yet Oxford have lost both of their previous two meetings.
Winners in the reverse fixture back in September, Wimbledon will be keen to replicate their 3-1 victory when the pair meet on Wednesday.
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Team News
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One of many Football League sides without a Boxing Day fixture, Oxford had recorded four positive Covid cases within the squad, to add to their lengthy injury list.
Alex Gorrin (knee), Jamie Hanson (hamstring) and Joel Cooper (hip) will likely miss the visit of Wimbledon, while the fixture is set to come too soon for Jack Stevens' return.
Goals have been hard to come by for Wimbledon at times this season, with an over reliance placed on the shoulders of Jack Rudoni.
The 21-year-old has netted seven times for the visitors this season, and he will make up part of an attack spearheaded by centre-forward Ollie Palmer.
Nik Tzanev will be targeting a clean sheet in between the sticks, with Nesta Guinness-Walker and Ben Heneghan expected to partner each other at the heart of defence.
Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Eastwood; Forde, Moore, Long, Seddon; Bodin, McGuane, Sykes; Whyte, Taylor, Williams
AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; Osew, Heneghan, Guinness-Walker, Lawrence; Woodyard, Hartigan; Assal, McCormick, Rudoni; Palmer
We say: Oxford United 2-1 AFC Wimbledon
Two sides with contrasting fortunes so far this season, the form book points towards a comfortable Oxford win.
While Wimbledon will likely be no pushovers, the playoff-chasing U's should have enough to edge past their London opponents.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 18.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
