Celta Vigo will be looking to secure their spot in La Liga for the 2020-21 campaign when they travel to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna on Saturday afternoon.
The visitors are currently 15th in the table, seven points clear of the relegation zone, while Osasuna, who have impressed many with their form this season, occupy 11th.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having been promoted back to this level courtesy of winning last season's Segunda Division, Osasuna's main task during the 2019-20 campaign would have been to ensure that they were not relegated.
Los Rojillos have performed above expectations this term, though, currently sitting 11th in the table, just two points behind 10th-placed Granada as they eye a top-half spot.
Osasuna have not finished higher than 16th in Spain's top flight since the 2011-12 season, which is an indication of just how impressive they have been on their return to this level of football.
Jagoba Arrasate's side will enter the match off the back of a disappointing 3-0 defeat at Real Betis on Wednesday, but they have won three of their last five in the league during a strong run of form.
© Reuters
Celta, meanwhile, are not quite there in terms of guaranteeing survival, but it would take some turnaround for the team to drop into the relegation zone at this stage of the season.
Indeed, a total of 36 points from 35 matches has left them in 15th position, seven points clear of the relegation zone. The Sky Blues have played a game more than the four teams directly below them, though, which means that they will still be looking over their shoulder at this stage.
Celta have actually only lost two of their eight league games since returning to action last month, while they will enter this match off the back of a 1-1 draw against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night.
Oscar Garcia's side have also picked up points in nine of their 17 away league games this term and are unbeaten against Osasuna in Spain's top flight since February 2013.
Osasuna La Liga form: DWWWDL
Celta La Liga form: WWDLDD
Team News
© Reuters
Osasuna are again set to be without Enric Gallego, Ruben Garcia, Marc Cardona, Robert Ibanez and Ezequiel Avila for this weekend's contest on home soil.
Jose Arnaiz led the line in a 4-5-1 formation against Betis last time out, and a lack of options at the top end of the field could see a similar selection in this game.
Pervis Estupinan is expected to return to the side at left-back, though, while Oier could also feature in the middle of the park as Arrasate prepares to make a couple of changes.
As for Celta, Denis Suarez, David Junca and Sergio Alvarez remain on the sidelines through injury, but Nestor Araujo is available after serving a one-game suspension against Atletico.
Rafinha is expected to return to the starting XI, while there could also be a role for Nolito in midfield.
Iago Aspas and Fedor Smolov started as the front two against Atletico in a 5-3-2 formation, but Aspas could drop to a wider position for this match with Smolov through the middle.
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Vidal, Aridane, D Garcia, Estupinan; Barja, Brasanac, Oier, Merida, Torres; Arnaiz
Celta possible starting lineup:
Blanco; Mallo, Murillo, Araujo, Olaza; Nolito, Rafinha, Yokuslu, Beltran, Aspas; Smolov
We say: Osasuna 1-1 Celta Vigo
Osasuna, on home soil, should be the favourites, but Arrasate's side are currently missing a number of important players. Celta, on the other hand, picked up an impressive point against Atletico last time out, and we are finding it difficult to predict the visitors to lose this game.
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 30.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.
