Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-23s win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Dominican Republic Under-23s had a probability of 37.05% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.06%) and 0-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Dominican Republic Under-23s win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain Under-23s would win this match.