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[monks data]
Norway national football team
Nations League | League B
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Ullevaal Stadion
Northern Ireland national football team

Norway
1 - 0
Northern Ireland

Dallas (68' og.)
King (62'), Elyounoussi (75')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Norway vs. Northern Ireland - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Norway and Northern Ireland, including team news and predicted lineups.

Northern Ireland will be looking to quickly bounce back from defeat when they take on Norway in a UEFA Nations League clash at the Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo on Wednesday.

Ian Baraclough's side lost 1-0 at home to Austria on Sunday and are now bottom of Group B1, while Norway are up to second after beating Romania 4-0 on the same day.


Match preview

Northern Ireland boss Baraclough accepted that his side were 'fearful' of Austria in Sunday's defeat at Windsor Park, where 600 supporters were allowed to watch the game.

Michael Gregoritsch scored what proved to be the winner shortly before half time, though Austria could easily have already been a few goals ahead by that point.

Baraclough knows that a lot more is required from the Green and White Army if they are to avoid relegation to League C, starting with an improved display in Oslo.

The loss to Austria came just a few days on from their penalty shootout triumph over Bosnia-Herzegovina, setting up a Euro 2020 playoff final showdown with Slovakia next month.

That is a truly massive game for Northern Ireland, of course, but before that they need to get some points on the board this week.

Norn Iron find themselves bottom of Group B1, three points adrift of third-placed Romania and a further two adrift of Norway and Austria.

Norway pair Erling Braut Haaland and Alexander Sorloth celebrate against Northern Ireland on September 7, 2020© Reuters

Norway are very much in contention for promotion, then, after cruising to a comfortable victory in their home meeting with Romania.

Erling Braut Haaland was the star of the show with another hat-trick - albeit his first at international level - while Alexander Sorloth was also on target in the one-sided game.

Unlike Northern Ireland, though, Norway have no chance of qualifying for next summer's European Championship finals after losing their playoff semi-final to Serbia last week.

The UEFA Nations League is now the Lions' sole focus and they will be keen to make it three wins in a row in the competition in midweek.

Norway enter this game on the back of an impressive scoring streak that has seen them net at least once in their last 18 matches since September 2018.

That includes five goals when they last met Northern Ireland last month, with Lars Lagerback's side running out 5-1 winners in Belfast.

Norway Nations League form: LWW
Norway form (all competitions): WWLWLW

Northern Ireland Nations League form: DLL
Northern Ireland form (all competitions): DLDLWL


Team News

Northern Ireland's Liam Boyce celebrates after the Euro 2020 qualification playoff with Bosnia-Herzegovina on October 8, 2020© Reuters

Stefan Johansen picked up a knock against Serbia and missed the win over Romania, while back-up goalkeeper Orjan Nyland is also carrying an injury.

After coming on as a second-half substitute in that most recent outing, Joshua King will be pushing for a recall here, possibly at the expense of Mohamed Elyounoussi.

As for the visitors, Baraclough has no reported injury or suspension concerns, though he may be tempted to rotate his side for this third game in less than a week.

The likes of Gavin Whyte, Jordan Jones and Kyle Lafferty were brought in against Austria, but all three of those could make way in Oslo.

Conor Washington, who has four goals in 23 international appearances, is expected to lead the line.

Norway possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Linnes, Strandberg, Ajer, Aleesami; Odegaard, Normann, Henriksen, King; Haaland, Sorloth

Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
McGovern; McLaughlin, Cathcart, J.Evans, Lewis; Davis, Thompson; Dallas, McNair, Saville; Washington


SM words green background

We say: Norway 2-0 Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland are seeking their first UEFA Nations League victory at the eighth attempt, losing all but one of those previous seven games in the competition.

Baraclough's men scraped through their Euro 2020 qualifier but have otherwise looked pretty poor in recent games, whereas Norway have scored goals for fun and will surely have too much quality for their opponents.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 64.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 13.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.32%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.12%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Norway in this match.


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Northern Ireland manager Ian Baraclough pictured on September 4, 2020
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