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[monks data]
Northern Ireland national football team
Nations League | League B
Oct 11, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Windsor Park
Austria national football team

Northern Ireland
0 - 1
Austria


McLaughlin (79'), Thompson (86')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Gregoritsch (42')
Grbic (90+2')

Preview: Northern Ireland vs. Austria - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Austria, including team news and predicted lineups.

Northern Ireland will head into their UEFA Nations League clash with Austria this weekend on a high after keeping alive their hopes of qualifying for Euro 2020.

Ian Baraclough's men beat Bosnia-Herzegovina on Thursday to set up a qualifying playoff final showdown with Slovakia and will now be looking to push on.


Match preview

Liam Boyce scored the winning penalty for Northern Ireland in Sarajevo after Niall McGinn cancelled out Rade Krunic's opener in normal time.

It was a huge victory for the Green and White Army, one that keeps them on course for back-to-back European Championship finals appearances.

Excitement is already building ahead of next month's home clash with Slovakia, but before then Baraclough's men have a couple more Nations League games to play.

Northern Ireland have not made the best of starts to their campaign, having lost 5-1 at home to Norway last month, a few days on from snatching a last-gasp draw in Romania.

Austria sit a point better off in Group B1 ahead of this trip to Windsor Park, where around 600 supporters are expected to be in attendance as coronavirus restrictions are eased.

Northern Ireland's Liam Boyce celebrates after the Euro 2020 qualification playoff with Bosnia-Herzegovina on October 8, 2020© Reuters

Franco Foda's side won 2-1 away to Norway in their opening game, only to undo all that hard work with a 3-2 home loss at the hands of Romania a few days later.

Sunday's visitors were also in action in midweek, although unlike Northern Ireland they could afford to rest players for their 2-1 comeback win at home to Greece.

Adrian Grbic and Christoph Baumgartner were on target for Austria in the final 13 minutes to turn the contest on its head in Klagenfurt.

The Burschen will now be looking to take advantage of Northern Ireland's underwhelming home return, which has seen them lose two and draw one of their last three there, including that crushing loss at the hands of Norway last month.

Northern Ireland Nations League form: DL
Northern Ireland form (all competitions): WDLDLW

Austria Nations League form: WL
Austria form (all competitions): WWLWLW


Team News

Jonny Evans pictured for Northern Ireland in March 2019© Reuters

Baraclough will no doubt look to make changes on the back of the trip to Bosnia, but he does not exactly have the deepest of squads.

Jonny Evans's return at the back was a massive boost last time out and he should retain his place for this game, though the likes of Corry Evans and McGinn may make way.

Gavin Whyte scored a last-minute goal in Northern Ireland's UEFA Nations League opener and will be hopeful of a recall, while Kyle Lafferty is another in contention to start.

Austria made mass changes for their friendly with Greece on Wednesday and are likely to revert back to their strongest XI for this match.

Grbic did his chances of starting this game no harm with his goal in midweek, while Karim Onisiwo will also be hopeful he did enough to warrant another start.

Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Bailey-Peacock; Dallas, Cathcart, Evans, Lewis; Thompson, Davis; Whyte, Thompson, Jones; Washington

Austria possible starting lineup:
A.Schlager; Lainer, Posch, Hinteregger, Ulmer; Grillitsch, Baumgartlinger; Sabitzer, X.Schlager, Baumgartner; Gregoritsch


SM words green background

We say: Northern Ireland 0-1 Austria

Northern Ireland may have picked up a massive victory on Thursday, but that penalty-shootout victory - after a tense period of extra time - would have taken it out of them.

Austria beat the Green and White Army home and away in the most recent UEFA Nations League campaign and we can see that trend continuing on Sunday.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austria win with a probability of 73.5%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 8.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austria win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.61%) and 0-3 (10.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 1-0 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austria would win this match.


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Game History

Who will win Sunday's UEFA Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Austria?

Northern Ireland
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
Austria
0.0%
0
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Northern Ireland's Liam Boyce celebrates after the Euro 2020 qualification playoff with Bosnia-Herzegovina on October 8, 2020
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