Cheltenham Town play host to Northampton Town on Monday evening having put themselves on the brink of reaching the League Two playoff final.
Goals from Charlie Raglan and Conor Thomas have given Michael Duff's team a 2-0 advantage ahead of the second leg of their semi-final tie at the Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
Match preview
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Having gone into the enforced break as the form team in League Two, Cheltenham picked up where they left off when returning to action on Thursday evening.
The Robins had to ride their luck at times, especially during the early stages of the first half as goalkeeper Owen Evans saved Ryan Watson's penalty.
The Wigan loanee also made a succession of saves before Thomas netted a potentially tie-winning goal with four minutes remaining at Sixfields.
Cheltenham's win extended a seven-match unbeaten streak which now includes six victories, arguably leaving Michael Duff with a job on his hands when it comes to ensuring that complacency does not become an issue ahead of the second leg.
Nevertheless, while Duff spoke highly of his players after the game, his opposite number Keith Curle commented on what he perceived to be bad luck regarding a number of penalty decisions.
Coupled with the performance of Evans, Curle may be justified with his point of view, and it could act as motivation heading into the most important contest of their season.
That may be what is required at a time when, in sharp contrast to their opponents, they have suffered five defeats from their last seven matches.
One of those setbacks, by a 2-1 scoreline, came at Cheltenham as recently as February 25, a result which particularly hurt having held a third-minute lead and conceded a late winner.
All things considered, Northampton will require something special to earn a spot in the final, but Curle rightly alluded to the fact that an early goal on Monday has the potential to change the course of this tie.
Cheltenham Town League Two form: WWWWDW
Northampton Town League Two form: LWLWLL
Team News
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Curle must decide whether to switch from a 3-5-2 formation in a bid to improve his team's run of form.
Andy Williams and Harry Smith are both pushing to take the place of Callum Morton in attack.
However, Curle will find a place for top goalscorer Sam Hoskins, who missed the first leg through suspension.
Should his team have come through Thursday's fixture unscathed, Duff is unlikely to tinker with his first XI.
Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Evans; Raglan, Tozer, Boyle; Long, Broom, Thomas, Doyle-Hayes, Hussey; Nichols, Reid
Northampton Town possible starting lineup:
Arnold; Goode, Turnbull, Wharton; Harriman, McCormack, Watson, Olayinka, Adams; Oliver, Hoskins
We say: Cheltenham Town 1-1 Northampton Town
Aware that Northampton will come out firing on all cylinders, expect a more reserved performance from the home side on Monday evening. Nevertheless, providing that they manage their fitness levels efficiently, we are backing Cheltenham to capitalise during the second half and see out the tie.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
