Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Linfield win with a probability of 52.68%. A win for Glenavon had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Linfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Glenavon win was 0-1 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Linfield would win this match.