Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ballymena United win with a probability of 48.86%. A win for Crusaders had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ballymena United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (7.9%). The likeliest Crusaders win was 1-2 (7.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.