Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 39.77%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-2 (8.07%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.