Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guingamp win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guingamp win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.