Newcastle United will endeavour to kick off 2022 in better fashion than they ended 2021 as Cambridge United pay a visit for the third round of the FA Cup on Saturday afternoon.
The Magpies' proposed Premier League encounter with Southampton was postponed due to COVID-19, while the visitors held 2008 FA Cup winners Portsmouth to a goalless draw on Monday.
Match preview
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As much as Newcastle's on-field play will be heavily scrutinised in the early weeks of 2022, the incomings are nigh, as the club's new owners prepare to splash the cash in the January transfer window in their bid to avoid relegation from the top flight.
Kieran Trippier's arrival from Atletico Madrid is imminent, and more may follow in the coming weeks amid links with the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Philippe Coutinho, but Eddie Howe must focus on the task at hand on the St James' Park turf.
The Magpies have bigger fish to fry in the Premier League as they try to clamber to safety, but they impressively held Manchester United to a 1-1 draw in their final game of 2021 and were arguably unfortunate not to come away with maximum points on the day.
Newcastle have lifted the FA Cup on six occasions down the years but have not tasted success in the competition since 1955, most recently bowing out to 14-time winners Arsenal in the third round of the 2020-21 edition and failing to make it past the quarter-finals since 2005.
Saturday's game undoubtedly provides Newcastle with a prime opportunity to improve on their paltry tally of one win across all tournaments this season, but with absentees potentially stretching into the double figures once more, Cambridge can dare to dream.
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Goals were at a premium for Cambridge in the closing stages of 2021, and the beginning of 2022 followed a similar pattern for Mark Bonner's side, who drew another blank during the visit of Portsmouth to Abbey Stadium in League One.
Despite boasting just 33% of the ball and facing 13 shots on goal - only five of which were on target, though - Cambridge survived the onslaught and had opportunities of their own to take the spoils, but a lack of ruthlessness bedevilled them in a fixture that saw 21 minutes of second-half injury time due to a medical emergency in the crowd.
A three-game streak without a win or a goal is not a recipe for success before a journey to a Premier League ground, and the U's are yet to assure themselves of League One safety, but their rapid rise from the non-league days of 2014 is nothing to be sniffed at.
Cambridge have already sent Northampton Town and Exeter City packing from this season's FA Cup, although they needed a replay to overcome the former in the first round, but they have not made it past this stage of the competition since being beaten by Manchester United in the fourth round of the 2014-15 edition.
Newcastle and Cambridge were regular foes back in the days of League Division Two and League Division One, with the Magpies winning both meetings by an aggregate score of 7-1 in 1992-93 en route to the Premier League as Cambridge dropped back down a tier.
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Team News
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Karl Darlow, Ciaran Clark, Joe Willock and Matt Ritchie were believed to have been affected by Newcastle's COVID-19 outbreak at the end of 2021, but all four could theoretically return here upon the completion of their self-isolation periods. Trippier - if his arrival is announced imminently - is unlikely to be registered in time.
Paul Dummett, Callum Wilson, Isaac Hayden, Federico Fernandez and Jamal Lewis all remain out of contention through injury, while doubts persist over the availability of Ryan Fraser and wing king Allan Saint-Maximin.
Javier Manquillo's suspension will instead carry over to his side's next Premier League game, and as such the Spaniard ought to start on the left-hand side of the rearguard with Freddie Woodman returning in goal.
As for the visitors, midfielder Sam Smith saw red for two bookable offences in the draw with Portsmouth and will sit this one out, so a spot has potentially opened up for Jack Lankester to feature.
Leon Davies has now left the club following the expiration of his contract, while Greg Taylor, Shilow Tracey and Lloyd Jones remain out for the long-term with injuries. Conor Masterson has also returned to parent club Queens Park Rangers.
Should 21-year-old Lankester not be called upon to fill the hole left by Smith's absence, 39-year-old Wes Hoolahan should return to Premier League territory and make use of his wealth of experience.
Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Murphy, Schar, Lascelles, Manquillo; Almiron, Hendrick, Shelvey, Longstaff, Joelinton; Gayle
Cambridge United possible starting lineup:
Mitov; Williams, Okedina, Iredale, Dunk; Digby, O'Neil; Hoolahan, May, Brophy; Ironside
We say: Newcastle United 3-0 Cambridge United
The travelling Cambridge support will relish the opportunity to witness their side step foot onto Premier League turf, but any joy of the occasion will likely be extinguished when the Magpies hit their stride.
With Howe's side potentially welcoming back their COVID-affected crop, the irrepressible Saint-Maximin and buoyed by news of fresh faces in the squad, we are backing the Magpies to get the job done in convincing fashion.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Cambridge United had a probability of 35.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.91%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Cambridge United win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
