For the second time in three days, New York City FC will take on their biggest rivals, the New York Red Bulls, in the Hudson River Derby on Saturday from Yankee Stadium.
On Wednesday, the Red Bulls salvaged a point with an equaliser in injury-time while the Boys in Blue extended their unbeaten run to three with that 1-1 draw.
Match preview
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After two successive defeats against the top two teams in the Eastern Conference (the New England Revolution and Nashville SC), Ronny Deila has seen his side bounce back with points in three straight matches, although he knows that it could have been a lot better.
They are in a comfortable position at the moment, five points back of Nashville and five points above the playoff line, so missing the postseason at this stage seems unlikely, but they have struggled when it comes to maintaining a lead lately.
Their last two draws against Dallas and the Red Bulls could very well have been victories as they squandered a 3-2 lead against the Toros only six minutes after going in front, and they conceded in the 12th minute of stoppage time against New York on Wednesday.
A side who have been heavily dependent on Valentin Castellanos to score have at least gotten some contributions from other sources recently, with four of their last six goals being scored by someone other than the Argentine striker.
Playing at Yankee Stadium has been a walk in the park for the Pigeons in 2021, unbeaten in their previous eight MLS fixtures in the Bronx, scoring 17 times while collecting five clean sheets over that span.
Keeping their composure down the stretch will be critical for New York FC, who tend to lose their cool in tense situations, with five red cards in their last five games.
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It took a two-man advantage, 12 minutes of stoppage time and a controversial penalty decision, but in the end, the Red Bulls found a way to earn another deserved point.
When you examine the big picture, it may not mean that much for Gerhard Struber and his team, who have a lot of catching up to do, currently eight points back of the final playoff spot with only 10 regular-season games remaining.
Time is their enemy at this point as a 12th straight trip to the postseason is in serious jeopardy, and with four teams to catch, there is virtually no room for error.
There is a glimmer of hope perhaps for them as all but one of their remaining games are against teams above them in the Eastern Conference table, so if they can take care of business, this seemingly impossible task may be possible.
In their last road fixture, they benefitted from another man-advantage to top Inter Miami 4-0, ending a five-game winless run away from home, which they hope will give them confidence against their state rivals.
The Red Bulls are winless in their last six matches played at Yankee Stadium against the Boys in Blue, with their last win in the Bronx coming in 2016, 7-0.
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Team News
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Keaton Parks and Maxime Chanot will not be available for this match because of suspensions, while Thiago Andrade missed the last two games due to a previous expulsion and Alfredo Morales has not seen the field over the past three games for the same reason.
Maxi Moralez picked up his team-leading ninth assist earlier this week, while Castellanos scored his 13th goal of the season, putting him one behind the Sounders Raul Ruidiaz for second in the league and three back of DC United's Ola Kamara.
Heber will hope to get back into the lineup against a side that he has scored twice against during his time with the Boys in Blue, while goalkeeper Sean Johnson has picked up two shutouts in his last three home games.
The Red Bulls have lost Aaron Long with an Achilles injury for the season, and Lucas Monzon is still nursing a hamstring issue.
Patryk Klimala has a goal in his last three games as he leads the team with seven in 2021 and is only one assist behind Fabio for first in that category.
Struber made just one change from the starting 11 against New York City versus the side that began their game against the Herons as Sean Davis took the place of Dru Yearwood in midfield.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Callens, Sands, Amundsen; Acevedo, Zelalem, Morales, Tinnerholm; Moralez, Medina; Castellanos
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Carlos; Duncan, Nealis, Reyes, Tolkin; Amaya, Casseres; Clark, Fabio, Royer; Klimala
We say: New York City FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls
The Pigeons have gone up against some of the top attacking sides in MLS at home this year and have done a great job of shutting them down, plus their top goalscorer has really been in the mood to score of late, and he loves playing the Red Bulls, having notched four goals against them in his career.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 58.66%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 19.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.59%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
