New York City FC are hoping to do something that very few teams have done this year, beat the New England Revolution, and they will have an opportunity to do that on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
The Pigeons are in fifth in the Eastern Conference, but only two points behind Orlando City for second place, while the Revs are on a roll, unbeaten in nine consecutive games, with a 15-point cushion over their nearest competitor.
Match preview
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It has been a busy month for Ronny Deila and his team, with five matches played in all competitions with no more than four days to rest in between each of those encounters.
During that tough stretch, this team have certainly competed hard, losing only once after 90 minutes while collecting five points in league play.
Last week they were a lot quieter in front of goal than we are used to seeing, with only two shots on target despite holding 59% of the possession in a 1-0 defeat to the Philadelphia Union.
The Boys in Blue have at least one game in hand on the teams in front of them at the moment so if they can take care of business, they could be in a very favourable position down the stretch.
With a 10-day break in between their last match to this one, Deila hopes that his team can get back on track versus a side that are like a runaway train at the moment.
When New York can hit the ground running to start a match, they are a tough team to contend with, scoring six first-half goals in their last five MLS encounters.
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At the moment, nothing can go wrong for New England, who are dominating the league with a ton of goals and a seven-point lead for the Supporters' Shield trophy.
Bruce Arena had to have been impressed with the focus and urgency that his team came out with last Saturday against FC Cincinnati, going up 3-0 after just over a half-hour of play and cruising to a comfortable 4-1 win.
The former two-time US Men's National Team coach needs just eight more wins to pull even with the late Sigi Schmid for the most all-time among MLS coaches in the regular season.
Everyone is getting in on the action for the Revs, with seven different players finding the back of the net on their current four-game winning streak where they have scored 11 goals.
The flow and combination play that we have seen lately from them has been a delight to watch and made even more impressive by the fact that they are doing all of this without their top playmaker in Carles Gil.
The record for most points in a regular season is 72, set by Los Angeles FC in 2019, but the Revs are in a position to eclipse that mark at the moment with 49 points from 22 games, the same amount that LA had in their record setting campaign.
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Team News
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Sebastien Ibeagha was traded to LAFC in exchange for $15,000 in General Allocation Money and an additional $50,000 if certain incentives are met.
Valentin Castellanos has scored the last three goals for his team, and he leads them in that category in the regular season with eight, while he is even with teammate Maxi Moralez in assists with six.
After collecting another yellow card in their last match, Jesus Medina will be out of the lineup, while Heber is also out with a knee injury.
New England will hope to make the most of their time remaining with Tajon Buchanan, who officially signed with Club Brugge in Belgium on Tuesday for an undisclosed fee, but he will still be with the team until the end of this season before joining the reigning Belgian champions.
On Wednesday, Matt Turner was heroic in goal for the MLS All-Stars, helping them defeat the Liga MX All-stars in a penalty shootout, while Adam Buksa picked up his ninth and 10th goals of the year versus the Orange-and-Blue as he is two back of Gustavo Bou for the team lead.
Luis Caicedo has a lower-body injury, Carles Gil is still bothered by a muscular problem, while Emmanuel Boateng made his first start of the season last weekend, Damian Rivera made his MLS debut last week as a second-half substitute and Arnor Traustason is eligible to return from his yellow card suspension.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Gray, Callens, Chanot, Tinnerholm; Acevedo, Sands; Parks, Medina, Andrade; Castellanos
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Jones, Farrell, Kessler, Mafla; Buchanan, Caldwell, Maciel, Boateng; Buksa, Bou
We say: New York City FC 1-3 New England Revolution
New York should provide a strong challenge for New England, much more so than Cincinnati were able to last week, however, they do not have the same attacking depth that the Revs possess and are becoming heavily dependent on Castellanos to score.
The Revolution are laser-focused right now and determined to keep winning, and they have been exceptional on the road of late with 11 goals in their last four games, all of which were wins.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 56.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for New England Revolution had a probability of 21.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a New England Revolution win it was 0-1 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
