The defending champions of Major League Soccer will open their home campaign on Saturday at Yankee Stadium versus CF Montreal.
New York City FC are scoreless after two regular-season affairs, with only a single point thus far, while Montreal are one of only four sides in MLS who have yet to earn a point this year, dropping a 2-1 decision last weekend to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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The Pigeons have lit the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) on fire with their offence, scoring nine goals in their last three games of that competition, but domestically, it has been a different story as Ronny Deila's men have only managed five shots on target combined in their two regular season encounters.
Moving forward, New York will be looking to build off a clinical performance in midweek, winning 3-1 versus Comunicaciones in the first leg of that quarter-final tie.
They should be feeling pretty good about their chances against Montreal, a side who have only beaten them once since entering the league in 2015.
There is some good news for Deila and The Boys in Blue as their west coast road trip is over, and they will not have to endure such a lengthy time difference for the remainder of the campaign as the furthest they will have to go in MLS from here on out will be in the central time zone.
It may be only two games, but seeing this side off the scoresheet is rare and something we only saw six times in the entire 2021 campaign, including the postseason.
Against Vancouver, their creativity and build-up play was terrific, but despite having numerous quality opportunities, they ran into a confident keeper in Thomas Hasal, who thwarted them at every turn.
Their accuracy when passing the ball has always been excellent, and according to Deila, they were a lot more precise last Saturday when it comes to playing in between the lines and moving the ball quickly in the final third.
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A pair of defensive mishaps cost Montreal last weekend as they have started the new campaign with two straight defeats for the first time since 2018.
Wilfried Nancy saw his side start brightly versus the Union, taking the lead after 32 minutes of play, but a disallowed goal by Djordje Mihailovic seemed to unnerve CFM after the referee determined that the star playmaker committed a foul on Julian Carranza.
This typically capable defensive unit have crumbled at the most inopportune times this season, conceding four goals in the second half, and each time in quick succession, including last Saturday when Philly scored twice in three minutes to turn the tide.
Nancy has talked about rebuilding the confidence of this group moving forward, and there is little time to waste with only three days to rest following their midweek defeat versus Cruz Azul (1-0) in the CCL.
Montreal can be a hard side to comprehend at times, particularly in the early going of this year, as they had lots of chances and possession versus Philly but created almost nothing in their Champions League Quarter-Final earlier this week, failing to fire a single shot on target.
Since October of last year, the results have not always gone their way however, this team always seem to stay in games, regardless of how badly they are being dominated, losing only one match since that point by more than a single goal.
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Team News
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NYC striker Valentin Castellanos is in fine form in the Champions League, scoring his third goal of that competition with a near-post header versus Comunicaciones on Tuesday, while also assisting on the goals scored by Maxi Moralez and Santiago Rodriguez.
Anton Tinnerholm is out with an Achilles tendon injury, while Keaton Parks, who missed a good portion of last season with a blood clot, made his first start of the MLS campaign at BC Place in Vancouver.
Even though the current roster likely still have years left in them, The Pigeons have not forgotten about their future, signing forward Kevin O'Toole through to the end of the season after selecting him in the second round of this year's MLS SuperDraft, only days after making history when they inked 14-year-old Maximo Carrizo to a first-team contract, as he becomes the youngest player ever to sign for an MLS club.
Mason Toye has not featured for Montreal in the regular season due to an adductor injury, Ahmed Hamdi and Samuel Piette have ankle issues, while Bjorn Johnsen and Sunusi Ibrahim are questionable due to illness.
Even though Cruz Azul had the bulk of the chances in the Champions League clash versus CFM, Joel Waterman, Rudy Camacho and Alistair Johnston did an excellent job for Montreal at collapsing in their box as Sebastian Breza only had to face one shot on target.
Lassi Lappalainen is the only player on this team with a goal in MLS play this year, as he scored the opener versus the Union off a nice play from Ismael Kone.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Martins; Morales, Parks; Heber, Moralez, Andrade; Castellanos
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Waterman, Camacho, Miller, Johnston; Bassong, Wanyama, Brault-Guillard; Mihailovic; Lappalainen, Quioto
We say: New York City FC 2-0 CF Montreal
Both sides have struggled in front of goal in this domestic campaign, but New York have shown more promise in the Champions League and MLS, while Montreal are still heavily dependent on Mihailovic.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 71.29%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 11.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (3.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
