We said: Turkey 1-1 Hungary
Turkey will be keen to make full use of home advantage ahead of Sunday's trip to Hungary, but we think that the hosts could be held to a draw in Thursday's contest, taking into account the fact that they have failed to win their last five head-to-head matches.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Hungary had a probability of 16.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.14%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Hungary win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.