Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 44.37%. A win for Moldova had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Moldova win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.