Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 49.03%. A win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 25.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Liechtenstein win was 0-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Latvia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Latvia.