Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 49.99%. A win for Andorra had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Andorra win was 0-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Latvia would win this match.