UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Semi-Finals

Oct 6, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Italy
1 - 2
Spain

Pellegrini (83')
Bonucci (30'), Locatelli (82')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Torres (17', 45+2')
Azpilicueta (45'), Sarabia (65'), Pino (71'), Oyarzabal (89')

Reaction

Italy's Lorenzo Insigne, Nicolo Barella and Federico Bernardeschi look dejected after defeat against Spain on October 6, 2021

Italy's 37-game unbeaten run ended by Spain in Nations League semi-finals

Italy's world-record unbeaten run of 37 matches came to an end on Wednesday night, as Spain claimed a 2-1 victory to advance into the UEFA Nations League final.

Oct 6, 22:07

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 43.56%. A draw had a probability of 31.5% and a win for Spain had a probability of 24.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (7.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.46%), while for a Spain win it was 0-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
Italy	Draw	Spain
43.56%	31.47%	24.96%

Both teams to score 35.62%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

28.72%

71.28%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

11.96%

88.04%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.94%

33.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.35%

69.65%

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.21%

46.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.67%

82.33%

Score Analysis

Italy 43.56%

Spain 24.95%

Draw 31.46%

Italy	Draw	Spain
1-0 @ 17.12% 2-0 @ 9.48% 2-1 @ 7.2% 3-0 @ 3.5% 3-1 @ 2.66% 3-2 @ 1.01% 4-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.64% Total : 43.56%	0-0 @ 15.46% 1-1 @ 13% 2-2 @ 2.73% Other @ 0.27% Total : 31.46%	0-1 @ 11.74% 1-2 @ 4.94% 0-2 @ 4.46% 1-3 @ 1.25% 0-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 1.43% Total : 24.95%