Euro 2020

European Championship | Semi-Finals

Jul 6, 2021 at 8pm UK

Wembley Stadium

Italy
1 - 1
Spain

Chiesa (60')
Toloi (97'), Bonucci (118')

FT
(aet)

Morata (80')
Busquets (51')

Italy win 4-2 on penalties

Reaction

Italy manager Roberto Mancini on June 16, 2021

Roberto Mancini: 'We must rest ahead of Euro 2020 final'

The Azzurri beat Spain on penalties to reach the Euro 2020 final.

Jul 7, 07:08

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Spain had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Spain win was 0-1 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%).

Result
Italy	Draw	Spain
42.31%	28.24%	29.45%

Both teams to score 45.63%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.75%

60.25%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.57%

80.43%

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.85%

28.15%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.17%

63.83%

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.5%

36.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.71%

73.29%

Score Analysis

Italy 42.31%

Spain 29.45%

Draw 28.23%

Italy	Draw	Spain
1-0 @ 13.02% 2-1 @ 8.32% 2-0 @ 8.26% 3-1 @ 3.52% 3-0 @ 3.49% 3-2 @ 1.77% 4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.71% Total : 42.31%	1-1 @ 13.12% 0-0 @ 10.27% 2-2 @ 4.19% Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.23%	0-1 @ 10.35% 1-2 @ 6.61% 0-2 @ 5.22% 1-3 @ 2.22% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 1.88% Total : 29.45%